Make more money betting on NFL Week 4
The most hyped about match-up of this 2010 NFL betting season is here. Everyone will be betting on Brett Favre wearing the purple against his former GB Packers.
So if everyone is betting on this GB vs. MN match-up, why are we telling you to bet on the Bengals vs. Browns match-up?
It's exactly because the betting public is distracted by some of the key games, because of the weak teams involved, and most importantly, because the betting line movements for this game have already seen it sway from -3.5 to -6 on some sportsbooks. These are the type of betting situations you want.
1. Games that the betting public may not betting on at all, leading to easier line movements when any money is placed on it.
2. Games where the bookmakers might not be focusing on as tightly as they should be.
3. Divisional games where the data, news, reports, and trends are all these to give you all the info you would need to place a winning bet while working the line movement to control your winnings/risk
NFL Week 4 is stacked with great games and we wish you the best on all of them. Don't get discouraged by last week's upsets, use them as a reason you need to control your bankroll even tighter so you can minimize risk and dive deeper into the data to support your bets.
Do your research, pick your big losers of the week, and drop your bets in now.
Why week 3’s NFL upsets will help you become a better sports bettor
Yes NFL week 3 did not go very well for many NFL bettors.
Yes you probably feel like the time the hot blond rejected you even after you bought her 5 drinks.
Yes the zombie MVP Brett Favre might have been the single reason you're eating $0.99 burgers today instead of a 32 oz steak.
Yes the Broncos, Titans, Lions, and Dolphins all threw a wrench into parlays, if bets, and teasers that looked great on paper.
Yes your winning streak might have come to a halt and your bankroll took a big enough hit for you to re-consider how you evaluate sports betting.
Just always remember that the NFL is one of the most unpredictable betting environments possible. With a limited schedule, injuries and weather both having such an impact, there is much more to consider than with basketball or baseball betting.
What you need to remember after a losing week so you can earn more cash from betting:
- Losses happen. Even the Patriots perfect team lost, Jordan never reached 80pts, the biggest payrolls in MLB don't guarantee wins, and Tiger is the best golfer in the world only 1/3 of the time. Statistics determine probability but can not pre-determine.
- The most powerful tool to deal with losses #1: Strong bankroll management skills like the ones we preach on linemovement.com dealing with controlling the line and balancing bets against popular support
- The most powerful tool to deal with losses #2: Very granular understanding of all circumstances related to the game including injuries, weather, situational trends, team morale, media weight on the team, coaching staff familiarity with the opposing style. Again we insist that to be a good bettor you are a master of knowing these types of facts, not the facts that drive media stories on ESPN about a single player or pointless drama.
- Monday Night Football betting and becomes even more valuable an unbalanced after an upset week. When players lose they don't know how to deal with it and need to prove to themselves they can win it back, fast. This leads to irrational bets being put on the Monday Night Football game. The betting line on tonight's game will move plenty, so keep your eye on it, monitor the stats that matter and use your football line movement skills to reduce the risk and maximize your betting winnings.
Beware of Monday Night Football, unless you know how to play it
Week 1 has pretty much come and gone for NFL bettors. For most bettors out there, week 1 usually ends up a financial disaster. As we outlined in earlier articles, there is no where near enough hard evidence of a team's 2009 play level and there is way too much background noise from the media and PR teams feeding you bad ideas.
Now comes Monday Night Football betting:
Buffalo vs. New England
San Diego vs. Oakland
What smart bettors need to know about Monday Night Football is that there is an ungodly amount of money put down on these games. If you saw the numbers you'd be surprised... it can often be equal to what's normally bet on 3-6 Sunday games.
Want to make more money betting on Monday Night Football?
Follow these rules:
- It always starts with research. You can't make money betting without digging into all data and news.
- Keep an eye out for special promotions. Refunds, kick-backs, free bets, free casino chips, etc. Books don't want you to lose all your cash right away.
- Do not follow the herd on MNF. Because of the high amount of cash being managed by bookies, and so many bettors trying to recover loses, the lines offered by sportsbook are highly swayed by the money. Line movements are a huge factor on MNF, so as soon as you see a media story that tell you people will rush to bet the opposite side of where you think the game will go, take that opportunity to cash in. If you can leverage two online sportsbooks, do it.
- Don't panic if this week doesn't go well for you. No one can stop the 80+ yrd tip hail mary TD passes or season ending injuries.
Make the most money possible out of sportsbooks with NFL betting: week 1
The wait is over.
The Brett soap opera is resolved (until next year).
The teams have made their marketing pitches and changed Jerseys for no reason.
Rookies and returning vets are being projected to put in huge numbers.
Analysts have made their predictions.
Bookies have set their title run lines and team handicaps.
But guess what....
After week 2, it all gets thrown out the window. The NFL is the biggest hype machine outside of US presidential politics. Wild claims, innuendo, regional preferences, and vague things like 'chemistry' and 'hustle' set the betting lines at sportsbooks now... not the actual results.
This is when smart bettors must take advantage of bookmakers to make the most off their NFL bets. Yes bookies do their research and have team informants letting them know of any line-up changes, BUT, online sportsbooks are financial institutions ahead of actual win-loss projectors.
If you want to win more from online sportsbooks this season, remember what we always say here at www.linemovements.com, use every advantage possible to leverage books against one another, manage your money to get the most out of bonuses, and most importantly, leverage actual bets vs. media hype.
Smart bettors do not get caught up in media hype. Smart bettors do not leave all their cash at one sportsbook. Smart bettors do not have consistent betting habits. As soon as you fall into the trap of following patterns, favorites, or bonus offers - you'll end up 10-50% less wealthy than you could have been if you leveraged every opportunity strategically.
We'll be back in few days to get into some of these much more detailed.
Do your research and we'll start making money on this NFL season.
2009 US Open tennis betting
Make money off US Open tennis betting
The US Open tennis major starts today in New York and if you don't know how much linemovement.com likes tennis betting, you haven't read enough of our posts.
Tennis tournaments give smart bettors some of the best opportunities to work over and make money off of lazy sportsbooks. Tournaments like these are so big with so little valuable betting history for many of the players, plus its right in the heat of the MLB season... and even better yet, the start of the NFL/NCAA seasons. No sportsbook is staffed well enough to track all of these sports, so non-top 25 tennis players are usually not properly graded.
If you're a tennis fan and bettor, do your research, get upt-to-the-minute player updates, and leverage your sportsbook accounts to take advantage of poor lines and late movements.
Line movements: NFL preseason betting
The NFL preseason betting has already started and there's a big slate of games this weekend for bettors to win off of.
As always, we advocate smart bettors to take advantage of lazy bookies who fail to move lines based on major line-up changes, and to move your money in the best way to earn more/minimize risk.
Keep an eye on major roster changes, coaching decisions, weather factors, or over-hyping of key games so you can make even more money betting on online sportsbooks.
Betting advantage from today’s MLB trade deadline!
Today is quite possibly the most advantageous day for MLB betting all year. Teams are desperate to make the trades they need while still having to play a full slate of games. Many many teams will be under-manned today while their players are either held out or have new players trying to fill uncomfortable roles. Most players don't turn into CC Sabathia last year or Matt Holliday this year right away.
Because its a full slate of games, bookies can't take everything off the board. Take advantage of big moves and of big line movements when the deals happen or players are in transit/stuck in physicals/held out for trades that didn't happen. This is one of the best days of the year to bet on baseball at online sportsbooks.
Making money from the MLB trade deadline
For sports bettors that want to make money from the Major League Baseball trade deadline, it's usually something that's made hard to cash in on.
While a few sportsbooks do actually offer lines on players to be traded, most of them either have very few players listed or the lines up for such short times that they are impossible to bet on.
Don't let the bookies mess with you. With every trade there's an opportunity to make some real cash.
- Bet on futures immediately after the trade is made if you feel this team is now a top pick
- Bet against teams that will have players held out when making their trade
- Work the peripherals of the trade impacts, whether its the AAA game that is effected, the team that lost out on the trade, or player props that might be effected
Sportsbook bookies aren't good enough to stay on top of all these facts all the time. Find the gaps, expose them, and make money betting on line movements.
- Do your research on how this player will perform in the new surrounds/effect team morale
MLB 2nd half betting: Ervin Santana’s effect on the line
The MLB All-star break has come and gone and here's hoping you walked away with some extra cash in your pocket after yet another AL win.
The first featured line movement that could effect a sports bet will be in the La Angels vs. Oakland Athletics. Key to this game is Ervin Santana and whether the 2008 ace shows or up, or if its that same Ervin Santana that's been so good for opposing teams.
If you want to make money on this bet, and we don't necessarily support wagering on this game, hunt and dig for any real-time updates on Santana's injury. As soon as any positive news comes to light, the bookies will be quickly changing the line and taking away an attractive pay-out for Angels bettors. The key is always to get your news before the bookmakers or to play both sides once the line moves. Considering all the thoughts on Ervin Santana and the Angels' banged-up OF, their payout can only go down.
Futures betting, patience pays
If you've never tried it, betting on futures at online sportsbooks is pretty much the easiest, most straight-forward, easiest to brag about, and sometimes the easiest bets to win.... the problem is you need to wait weeks or months to find out if you were right!
Like we keep mentioning here, all sports lines move, especially when influenced by major news or shifts of money. Since baseball is on break, let's look at the NCAA and NFL futures for some possible situations you could make money from. Most online sportsbooks will only post their championship odds now, "to win NCAA champ", "to win Super Bowl", so we're just looking for the basic win-it-all situation.
In the NFL the major storylines that could affect these shifts are Tom Brady's health, LT's re-surgance to MVP?, the new-look bears, and what if any affect Brett Favre will have on AP.
We aren't going to post our opinion about these, but the main thing you need to think about if when the best time to place your bets. If you're a Pats fan, laying your bet when their chance of winning is at its lowest will net you the most cash. If you're a Steelers fan, wait for the media hype to surround every other team distracting from a possible repeat. Once the futures list opens up more, you can start looking more at the key advantages coming out of the depth chart, injuries, and player drama... but we'll look at those at another time.
The main thing is using the timing of your bet to your advantage of using the line movement to make even more money from sports betting.