3M Open weekend golf betting update

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The 3M Open has played pretty much as expected through the first two rounds. Even with the wind picking up at times, the golfers have still been able to attack most of the greens. Most of the struggles so far have stemmed from the number of hazards on the course. The first round saw more balls find the water than any other round on tour this year.

Just as we stated in the outrights preview article, the golfers who are able to avoid the trouble will move their way up the leaderboard. And that has been exactly what we’ve seen unfold.

Weekend weather

With some potential rainfall coming into effect over the next couple days the course should soften up some making the greens even more receptive to approach shots. For live outrights and weekend matchups, we will be placing the same level of importance on approach that we did to start the event. Wind should not be much different than it has been up until this point with the gusts only getting to around 15 mph, which is similar to what we saw Thursday afternoon and Friday morning.

Outrights review

The outrights in the original article have been hit or miss so far this week. Our main golfer in contention is Max Homa who is still within eyesight of the leaders. A double bogey late in his round knocked him down the leaderboard some but a solid Saturday could see him right back near the top. That’s all we can ask from a golfer we bet at 70/1. Patrick Rodgers was a pick that I gave out on Twitter Wednesday and he is also having a nice first two rounds currently sitting inside the top 10.

Paul Casey has been the biggest disappointment thus far. When it comes to Casey, he just needs to be average when it comes to putting because of how strong his ball striking is. At this point, he is 150th in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting. That just isn’t going to get it done. Tony Finau was clearly the better play in this range and is someone we will be looking into when it comes to betting the weekend. More on him to follow.

Live stats summary

Below are the current Strokes Gained: Ball Striking leaders after the first two rounds compared to their current rank in Strokes Gained: Putting:

Some of these golfers may end up missing the cut. I am pulling these numbers just before the conclusion of Friday’s round.

As we know by now, our goal when live betting golf is to find the golfers who are hitting the ball well but can’t seem to get the putts to drop. Putting is much more random than ball striking so looking at the two stats side by side we can easily find a handful of golfers due for positive regression.

Current leaderboard breakdown

I have been very impressed by Richy Werenski through his first two rounds. He was a golfer that I liked coming into the event and appears to be in line to pay out a nice top 20 bet. All of that said, I don’t anticipate him to remain leading the event. He is currently gaining an astounding 6.6 strokes putting. That just isn’t sustainable and is a golfer I will be looking to fade over the weekend.

Michael Thompson is the other co-leader at the moment. He is 2nd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach which bodes well for his chances. The downside is his 4.5 strokes he has gained putting. He typically relies on his putting to carry him. He has only gained on approach twice in the last six events he has played. I’ll look at the solid ball striking as a bit of an anomaly. He is also an easy golfer for me to avoid this weekend.

This tournament could turn into a 1 vs 1 matchup on Sunday between Matthew Wolff and Tony Finau. They are by far the two best golfers at the top of the leaderboard and both are playing very well. Wolff won this tournament last year so he clearly has a good eye for this course. Finau is currently leading the field in both Strokes Gained: Approach and Strokes Gained: Tee to Green. I will be siding with Finau between this duo. More detail on him below.

Outrights added

Tony Finau +700 or better

My strategy for this weekend will be to find the best live number available for Finau. All of the other golfers at the top are playing well above their previous trends in terms of Ball Striking. Finau is the golfer who has been in contention down the stretch most recently and is currently in great form. 

Finau is currently the live odds favorite at roughly +300. I will wait to see if this number drifts throughout the day Saturday. If Finau struggles the first few holes he could quickly move to +700 due to recency bias of his inability to close out tournaments. Anything longer than +700 would be considered great value with how well he is playing. It is possible that I will be firing at him around +500 as well. 

Live betting outrights are similar to investing in stocks. It all comes down to timing of when to place the bet. It seems to be his tournament to lose at this point and I will do my best to get a piece of it.

Caveat:

If Matthew Wolff gets longer than +1000 and is still within 4 shots of the lead on Saturday, I will be betting that number. 

Danny Lee +7000

If you are looking for someone with longer odds who will have a shot at competing late Sunday, I have already fired a bullet at Lee at 70/1. He is hitting the ball great at the moment. Coming off two missed cuts, he was not on many people’s radar coming in but his numbers the first two rounds line up for the exact type of live bet we want to take. He is currently 5th in the field in Approach and Ball Striking. Overall Tee to Green he currently ranks 2nd going into the weekend. If the leaders give some back early Saturday, the five strokes Lee is behind could be made up in a hurry. 

Matchups to consider

Most sportsbooks have not released the official round 3 matchups at this time. But that doesn’t stop us from taking a look at golfers to target. Below are the golfers I will be looking to bet on in their given matchups on Saturday.

Cameron Davis

Cameron Davis has gained in all major categories over his past 5 events. He is currently in a tie for 8th place and is looking sharp with his ball striking. My hope is that due to the World Golf Rankings (he is currently 220th) he will be an underdog for his matchup tomorrow and that will be something I’ll be looking to take advantage of.

Tony Finau

Have I discussed it enough yet? No? Okay…well I like Finau for this weekend. I’ll be looking to him for live outrights as well as whatever matchup we can get. The numbers don’t lie. Finau is dialed in this week in Minnesota. 

Harris English

A tale of two rounds for English so far this week. He shot a mediocre -1 in round one but followed that up with a solid round two placing himself back inside the top 20 for the week. We loved him before the tournament started and shouldn’t let a rough first round lead us astray. 

Sepp Straka

Last week’s event at Memorial saw Straka finish poorly in 61st place but much of this was due to him losing over 6 strokes on Approach. He is gaining so far this week, which is more in line with his typical game. He’s gained Approach in 3 of his last 5 events and generally is a very strong Tee to Green player. I like the way he looks for this weekend.

That’s it for now. I will be posting more bets that stand out as we move throughout the rest of the event on Twitter at @sommbets5. I hope Finau bogeys a couple of holes early tomorrow and his number moves back into a bettable range. Otherwise, I will be pulling for Homa and Rodgers to move their way up the leaderboard. Good luck to all!

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