Futures betting is a long-term form of investing in the sports betting market. Instead of betting on a single game or event, a futures bet is a bet that is typically determined over the full regular season or playoffs.
There are a bunch of different types of futures you can target in the NFL. Popular team future bets include regular season win totals, who will win each division, and who will win the Super Bowl.
Futures odds aren’t exclusive to teams either. You can also get into the act with NFL players. You can bet on who will lead the league in rushing yards, who will win the MVP, and a host of other categories.
Ultimately, the more unlikely the sportsbooks deem each event to happen, the greater the potential payout.
That is the biggest benefit of the futures market. Most of these bets are going to pay out better than even money, which can make them a great way to build your bankroll.
Famously, the St. Louis Blues won the Stanley Cup in 2019 after being listed at +25000 halfway through the NHL season. That means that a $100 wager netted backers a whopping $25,000!
Futures can also reward bettors with excellent hedging opportunities. For example, if you did take the Blues at 250-1 to win the Stanley Cup back in 2019, you had plenty of opportunities to bet against them during the playoffs to guarantee a nice payday.
The only real negative with futures betting is that it locks up a portion of your bankroll for a long period of time. If you have 10% of your bankroll invested in futures, that’s money that you cannot use to bet on individual games.
Still, futures are a great way to turn a profit as long as you aren’t tying up too much of your bankroll.
Let’s look at some futures I’m eyeing for the 2020 NFL season.
Super Bowl LV futures
Wagering on the Super Bowl winner is probably the most common NFL futures bet. The Kansas City Chiefs are the current favorites at most sportsbooks — paying out at roughly +600 — while the Jacksonville Jaguars are considered the biggest longshots at +15000.
I like to split my Super Bowl futures into three categories: favorites, contenders, and longshots. I might bet a full unit on the favorites, a half unit on the contenders, and a quarter unit on the longshots. That way, I am ensuring a profit if any one of those teams ends up hoisting the Lombardi Trophy.
For more on unit size and bankroll management, check out our guide here
Favorites
- Baltimore Ravens: +650
I love the Ravens’ prospects heading into this season. They are arguably the most well-run team in all of football, and they displayed that in 2019. They completely revamped their offense to take advantage of Lamar Jackson’s diverse skill set, and he rewarded them with an MVP trophy.
It sounds so simple, but so many coaches are not willing to adapt their system to fit their personnel. They’d rather try to jam a round peg into a square hole and then blame the peg when it doesn’t fit. Head Coach John Harbaugh and Offensive Coordinator Greg Roman did a wonderful job building their offense around Jackson, and there’s no reason to expect that he won’t improve in his second season.
Their front office also put together a marvelous offseason, headlined by the acquisition of Calais Campbell. He’s still one of the best defensive lineman in the league despite turning 34 years old. Draft picks Patrick Queen and J.K. Dobbins should also have an immediate impact on the squad.
Overall, I think this is the most talented team in the league from top-to-bottom, and they possess one of the best coaching staffs as well. If Jackson can progress as a passer, there’s no reason they can’t win the Super Bowl this season.
Contenders
- Dallas Cowboys: +1700
I am not sure why oddsmakers are so low on the Cowboys right now. They did lose star cornerback Byron Jones in the offseason, but they have the potential to be the best offense team in football.
The Cowboys were already an elite offensive squad in 2019. Dak Prescott finished second in the league in passing yardage and fourth in passing TDs. Ezekiel Elliott finished fourth in rushing yards and fifth in rushing TDs. Add it all up, and the Cowboys ranked first in yards per game and sixth in points per game.
Their offense only figures to be better this season. They added CeeDee Lamb in the first round of the NFL draft, who was considered by some analysts to be the best WR in the entire draft. Adding him to a WR corps that already includes Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup gives Prescott one of the most talented groups of pass catchers in the entire league.
The Cowboys should also benefit from some positive regression in close games. They finished just 1-6 in one score games last season, which is the big reason why they ultimately missed the playoffs.
The NFC is pretty much wide open this season, and I like the Cowboys’ chances of making a run in the playoffs.
- Pittsburgh Steelers: +2500
The AFC North is absolutely loaded this season. As much as I love the Ravens, I think the Steelers might represent the better betting value.
The Steelers very quietly were one of the best defensive teams in the league in 2019. They finished third in Football Outsiders’ Defensive DVOA last year, which trailed only the Patriots and 49ers. They ranked third in both rush defense and pass defense DVOA, so they have no obvious weakness for opposing offenses to target.
In terms of weighted DVOA — which weighs games at the end of the season heavier than games at the beginning — the Steelers finished as the top defensive team in the league.
What ultimately doomed the Steelers was their abysmal quarterback play. After Ben Roethlisberger got hurt, they turned to the combo of Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges. Among the 60 QBs that threw at least 10 passes last season, Rudolph finished 43rd in QBR while Hodges finished 46th.
The fact that the Steelers actually managed to win eight games with that combo is actually pretty encouraging for their prospects moving forward.
Roethlisberger is all systems go heading into this season. If he can stay healthy — which is a big if given his injury history — he should give the Steelers a massive bump in production at QB. If the offense can just get to a league average level, they should win plenty of games given their elite defense.
Longshot
- Los Angeles Rams: +3300
Last year, the Rams entered the season coming off a Super Bowl loss and were considered one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl in 2019. My how things have changed. Now, the Rams have the third-worst Super Bowl odds in just the NFC West.
But fundamentally, not much is all that different between the Rams last year and the Rams this year. Yes, they did lose some big names in Todd Gurley and Brandin Cooks, but both players saw a decrease in production last season. The Rams should be able to replace that production with some smart coaching, and Sean McVay certainly fits that description.
They used their first draft pick on a RB in Cam Akers, and they still have a strong collection of weapons overall. They have two excellent WRs in Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp, and they have two very serviceable tight ends in Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett.
Their defense also has plenty of upside. They are led by blue-chippers Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey, who might be the two best players in the league at their respective positions.
Betting on the Rams is essentially a bet on Sean McVay and regression, and I’m happy to make that wager at 33-1.
Conference winners
I’m not going to dig too deep into AFC and NFC odds because ultimately I like the same teams that I recommended for the Super Bowl.
That said, I will say that I am more bullish on the two NFC teams that I outlined simply because they play in the easier conference.
The 49ers are considered the favorites in the NFC at the moment, but I’m skeptical that they can repeat. Their success last year was built on a dominant defense and run game, and those can be hard to replicate on a year-to-year basis. The teams that remain contenders every year do so because they have a great quarterback, and I’m not sure if Jimmy Garoppolo fits that description just yet.
The Saints and the Buccaneers occupy the second tier in the NFC, but the QBs for those teams will be a combined 84 years old at the start of the season. Drew Brees and Tom Brady are obviously all-time greats, but it wouldn’t be shocking to see some regression from both players.
Ultimately, I think the path for the Cowboys (+850) and Rams (+1600) to win the NFC Championship will be easier than some of the mid-level teams in the AFC, who have to go through juggernauts like the Chiefs and Ravens.
You could certainly look at the Ravens to win the AFC as well (+320), but I think the better value lies with just taking them to win the Super Bowl. If they can get past the Chiefs and the rest of the AFC, they will almost undoubtedly be favored to hoist the Lombardi Trophy.
Division and team wagers
NFC East
- Dallas Cowboys: win the division (-106), Over 9.5 wins (-150), Dak Prescott to win the MVP (+1400)
I am all-in on the Cowboys.
Say what you will about Mike McCarthy, but he is almost certainly a coaching upgrade over Jason Garrett. He led Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to a Super Bowl title, and he has stated that he’s going to focus more on analytics in his second head coaching stint. That could make for a scary combo given all their offensive weapons.
The NFC East also stands out as one of the weaker divisions in football. The Cowboys will have four games vs. the Giants and the Washington professional football team, who are forecast to be two of the worst teams in the league. If they can win those four games, that puts them well on their way towards their over of 9.5.
Sharp Football is also projecting them to be underdogs in just five contests next season, and four of those will be by three-points or less. Overall, they have the ninth-easiest schedule in terms of opponent win totals.
The Cowboys’ schedule is particularly easy from a defensive perspective, which is why I’m bullish on Prescott in the MVP market. If the Cowboys can win double-digit games, it will almost certainly be on the back of a huge Prescott season.
- Philadelphia Eagles: Finish second in the division (+118)
The sportsbooks see the NFC East as a toss up between the Cowboys and Eagles, but I don’t agree. The Eagles aren’t nearly the same team offensively as the Cowboys: They ranked 14th in offensive DVOA, Dallas ranked second. Both teams were pretty equivalent in terms of defensive DVOA, so that’s a significant difference.
The Eagles also used their second round draft pick on a backup QB, which will essentially provide them zero value in 2020. That pick might pay off in the long term, but the Eagles hope that Carson Wentz starts at QB in all 16 games this year.
The fact that the Eagles are expected to play a tougher schedule this season is just another factor that points towards the Cowboys winning the division.
Still, there is a clear gap between the Eagles and the bottom two teams in the NFC East. New York and Washington both have a chance to finish as the worst teams in football, so I like the Eagles’ chances of finishing with the No. 2 spot.
- New York Giants: Fourth in the division (+145), fewest games won (+1100)
I don’t think most people believe the Giants are the weakest team in football, but there is definitely a scenario where they finish with the worst record. They have an absolute bear of a schedule. In addition to four games vs. the Cowboys and Eagles, they also have to take on the entire AFC North and NFC West. Those might be the two best divisions in football from top to bottom.
Sharp football only projects the Giants to be favored in three games next season, and two of those are by just a single point. It could be a long year for Big Blue.
- Washington Professional Football Team: Chase Young Defensive Rookie of the Year (+200)
Washington’s schedule is slightly easier than the Giants’ — such is the benefit of finishing in last place in the division last year — which is why I’m giving them a slight edge in 2020. Still, I don’t see enough value to actually place a bet on their win total or finishing position.
My preferred target is Chase Young to win Defensive Rookie of the Year. He has the potential to be a game changing defensive lineman. Ohio State has been a hotbed of pass rushing talent recently, and Young is considered by most to be the best prospect they’ve produced. That includes Nick Bosa, who was an easy choice for Defensive Rookie of the Year last season.
I’m backing Young as the favorite in this category, and I will look to supplement that with a longer shot or two as well.
NFC West
- San Francisco 49ers: Miss the playoffs (+260)
This may seem crazy on the surface, but it’s definitely not unprecedented. The “Super Bowl hangover” is a real thing. Three of the past four teams to lose the Super Bowl have failed to qualify for the postseason the following year.
My biggest fear for the 49ers is this schedule. It doesn’t look all that difficult on the surface — they rank just 17th in terms of opponent win totals — but it should pose some challenges for the ground game. They’re expected to face the third hardest schedule of run defenses after ranking just 19th in that department last year. Will the passing game be able to step up if the run game falters? I’m not sure.
It’s certainly possible that the 49ers continue to just maul teams in 2020, but I don’t think they are a lock to repeat their success. Nine wins isn’t a lock to get you to the postseason — even with an extra team making the playoffs this year — so I’ll grab the +260.
- Los Angeles Rams: Make the playoffs (+144), win the division (+500)
If I’m fading the 49ers, it would make sense that I’m buying someone else in the division. I already laid out why the Rams make sense as a longshot Super Bowl bet, but their odds to make the playoffs is probably my favorite wager for this team. It isn’t as large of a payout, but it’s obviously a lot easier to accomplish.
I’m also going to sprinkle in the Rams to win the division at +500. The 49ers and the Seahawks are the favorites to win this division, but both teams have their flaws.
- Seattle Seahawks: Under 9.5 wins (-140)
The Seahawks apparently think they are serious contenders for the Super Bowl. That is the only logical explanation for trading away two first round picks for a safety, even one as talented as Jamal Adams.
I’m not so sure. The Seahawks did win 11 games last season, but they finished the season with a point differential of just +7. That made them easily one of the luckiest teams in the league: Teams with a comparable scoring differential are expected to be closer to 8-8 than 11-5.
Unsurprisingly, they had an excellent record in one-score games, posting a mark of 10-2. They were even better in games decided by a field goal or less, posting a perfect 4-0 record.
Having a great QB in Russell Wilson will help you in those contests, but that’s still an unsustainable mark. Teams are expected to be around .500 in one score contests, so any regression in that department could be disastrous in 2020.
Of course, maybe they wouldn’t play in so many one-score games if they weren’t so insistent on running the football. I would be bullish on this squad if they would just let Wilson do what he does best, but don’t expect much to change for Brian Schottenheimer after such a successful season.
- Arizona Cardinals: DeAndre Hopkins under 1150.5 receiving yards (-110)
Hopkins should have a major impact on the field for the Cardinals this season, but it wouldn’t be wise to expect him to duplicate his gaudy numbers with the Texans. The Cardinals spread the ball around, and guys like Christian Kirk and Larry Fitzgerald will still get their targets.
More importantly, the general public tends to undervalue how hard it is for a WR to switch teams. He has to learn a new system and develop chemistry with a new QB, both of which take time.
Overall, there have been 16 WRs to change teams after scoring at least 200 PPR fantasy points in the year prior. Only three have increased their production the following season, and those 16 receivers have scored an average of 20% fewer fantasy points the following season.
There isn’t a direct correlation between fantasy points and yards, but that loss of points has to come from somewhere right? I’m fine with betting on a down year for Hopkins.
NFC South
- New Orleans Saints: Win the division (-134)
This is another division where the oddsmakers are expecting a tight race at the top. The Saints are the defending NFC South champs after posting a 13-3 record. That marked the second straight year that the Saints have won 13 games and the third straight year of at least 11 wins.
They have one of the best offenses in the league, ranking second in weighted offensive DVOA last season. Drew Brees continues to produce at a high-level, and Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara make up one of the best 1-2 punches in the league. They also brought in Emmanuel Sanders to help in the rare instances where Thomas isn’t open.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are considered the top threat to their crown, but I still think the Saints hold a solid advantage. Bringing in Tom Brady was a huge splash acquisition, but his days as a top QB are probably over. He’s posted a QBR of 53.7 last season, which tied for merely 16th among starters with at least 200 pass attempts. The guy he was tied with? Jameis Winston, who he will be replacing.
That QB change has created a situation where the Bucs are being overvalued by the public. I will gladly back the Saints as small favorites to win the division.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Pass
I could definitely be talked into a wager on the under for the Bucs — and I may end up doing that before the start of the season — but I haven’t gotten to that point quite yet.
Even though I don’t think the offense will be world’s better with Brady under center, their defense is pretty darn good. They didn’t lose much from a team that finished third in weighted defensive DVOA last season.
Even if Brady doesn’t elevate the offense like most people think, he should still help the defense just by virtue of a lower turnover rate.
NFC North
- Green Bay Packers: Devante Adams to lead the league in receiving yards (+1400)
The NFC North is one of the hardest divisions for me to handicap. The Packers and Vikings should contend for the top spot in the division, with the Bears and Lions bringing up the rear.
With that in mind, I’m going to take a look at a player future that I like. Adams is tied with Mike Evans and Tyreke Hill for the fourth-shortest odds in the receiving yards category, which I think is selling Adams short.
Adams missed a solid chunk of the season with an injury, but he was a target monster after returning to the lineup in Week 9. He posted a target market share of at least 30% in six of his final eight games, and only Michael Thomas saw a comparable workload.
Things don’t figure to change much with the Packers’ passing game this season. Devin Funchess was their only free agent signing at the WR position, and he just opted out for health reasons. They didn’t use any of their nine draft picks on a WR either, so expect another heavy dose of Adams in 2020.
AFC East
- New England Patriots: Win the division (+130)
Death. Taxes. The Patriots winning the AFC East. Some things in life are just certainties.
The Bills have gotten a lot of buzz during the offseason, and they are actually slight favorites to win the division at some sportsbooks. That said, I just can’t bet against Bill Belichick.
I’ve already said that I think Tom Brady has become overvalued as a player, so I think Belichick will be excited to get the opportunity to move on. If he had his way, he probably would’ve moved on from Brady sooner and turned the franchise over to Garoppolo.
Instead, he’ll get to hand the keys of the Patriots’ offense over to Cam Newton. Cam is a major question mark, but he obviously has a huge ceiling if he can stay healthy.
Even if he can’t, I trust Belichick to figure it out. Remember, the Patriots went 11-5 after Brady tore his ACL in 2008 and 3-1 while Brady was suspended in 2016.
The Patriots will also have one of the best defenses in the league to fall back on. No one can match their elite cornerback trio of Stephon Gilmore, Jason McCourtey, and Jonathan Jones, and Belichick has always been able to put together a solid pass rush.
The biggest concern is that the Patriots have been the team hit hardest by player withdrawals. Dont’a Hightower and Patrick Chung have both already opted out, which leaves the team without two projected starters.
Still, I’m betting on the Patriots until they give me a reason not to.
- Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen to win the MVP (+5000)
If you want to back the Bills, Allen winning the MVP is a high-upside way to do it. There is a lot to like about Allen’s skill set. He’s one of the best rushing QBs in football, leading all QBs with nine rushing touchdowns. He’s not going to put up insane yards like Lamar Jackson, but he has some Newton-like ability as a goal line hammer.
The bigger question mark is with his passing ability. That said, the Bills did give Allen a legit No. 1 weapon in Stefon Diggs, who they acquired from the Vikings during the offseason. Allen has never had a talent like that to work with at the receiver position.
If he can make strides as a passer and lead the Bills to a good season, he definitely has some dark horse potential as the league MVP. I like this as a cheap way to hedge my position with the Patriots, and some sharp analysts like Evan Silva are on this wager as well.
- New York Jets: Finish fourth in the division (+135), Finish with the fewest wins in the league (+1100)
I’m approaching the Jets very similarly to how I’m approaching the Giants. They are likely more talented than teams like the Dolphins, Bengals, and Jaguars, but they’re going to face one of the toughest schedules in the league.
The Jets will have to face the entire AFC West and NFC West, in addition to four games vs. the Patriots and Bills. They’ll also have to take on the Colts and Browns, who are expected to be much improved. Contrast that with the Dolphins, whose extra games are vs. the Jaguars and Bengals. That makes their schedule significantly easier.
Ultimately, the Jets rank 30th in terms of opponent win totals, which puts them in front of only the Giants and Falcons.
We also have to factor in the Adams trade. That should yield a nice haul for the Jets in the long term, but it clearly hurts their chances on the field this season. Adams was also a leader in the locker room, so his absence could have a negative impact on team morale.
- Miami Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa to start Week 1 (+275)
Tua is the future of the Miami Dolphins. If he’s good, he will likely drag this team out of the basement of the AFC East. But the only way we’re going to figure that out is if he plays.
The Dolphins have said they will exercise caution with Tua, but he seems ready and raring to go. He’s going to see plenty of action during the preseason, and if he’s truly healthy, he will push Ryan Fitzpatrick for the starting job. This isn’t a situation like Aaron Rodgers had in Green Bay or Patrick Mahomes had in Kansas City. Fitzpatrick has had nowhere near the same success as Brett Favre or Alex Smith.
Talented QBs have a habit of forcing their way onto the field earlier than expected, especially with mediocre QBs in front of them. I’m willing to roll the dice on a small wager.
AFC West
- Kansas City Chiefs: Pass
The Chiefs are stupid-good. I get it. They’ve won 12 games in each of the past two seasons, and they show no signs of slowing down with Mahomes under contract for the next 10 years. He can do things with the football that no other player would even attempt.
Still, it is worth noting that the Chiefs faced 10-point deficits in all three of their playoff games last season. They were obviously able to overcome those — such is the luxury of having Mahomes — but it’s not like this team was a juggernaut all year long.
I’m exercising just a bit of caution with the Chiefs this season. I think the Ravens represent the better betting value, especially during the regular season. The fact that Laurent Duvernay-Tardiff will reportedly opt out doesn’t help matters either.
Bottom line: You have to pay a heavy premium to back the Chiefs this season — which I’m not willing to do — but there’s no way in hell I’d actually fade them.
- Los Angeles Chargers: Kenneth Murray to win Defensive Rookie of the Year (+1100)
Historically, there are two types of players who win Defensive Rookie of the Year: pass rushers and middle linebackers. Murray definitely fits the second category here for the Chargers, who selected him with the No. 23 pick of the NFL Draft.
He’s a sideline-to-sideline linebacker with 4.40-speed who should rack up a ton of tackles. He’s already penciled in as a starting linebacker for the Chargers, who already have excellent players on their defensive line and in their secondary.
AFC South
- Indianapolis Colts: To win division (+110), Most wins in the league (+2000)
I don’t think the Colts are legitimate contenders for a Super Bowl, but they should rack up a ton of wins during the regular season. They have the easiest schedule in the league by a wide margin.
It starts with their division, which is one of the worst in football. The Titans are solid, but the Texans traded their best player for a running back with major knee problems in the past, and the Jaguars are possibly the worst team in football.
They also get matchups vs. the Jets, Bengals, and Las Vegas Raiders in non-division games, and they get to play the entire NFC North. Overall, there is really just one game on their schedule which you would say is against the true top tier of the league (Ravens), and they get the luxury of playing that game at home.
They should be able to ride that schedule to a division crown, and I think they have an outside shot at the best record in the league as well.
- Houston Texans: Deshaun Watson to win MVP (+2500)
Are you noticing a trend with my MVP bets? They are all dual-threat QBs with the potential to fill the statsheet on a weekly basis.
Watson is going to have to overcome losing Hopkins to the Cardinals, but he still has a solid WR duo of Will Fuller and Brandin Cooks. Both players have had durability issues in the past, but they are dynamic when healthy.
Ultimately, I’m just betting on the talent here with Watson. He’s one of the best QBs in the league, which should keep the Texans in a lot of games. This line is simply too low.
AFC North
- Baltimore Ravens: 16-0 regular season (+2500)
I am betting the Ravens to win the Super Bowl, so I obviously like their chances of winning this division as well. That said, the odds there aren’t all that appealing.
Instead, I’m going to look at a longshot wager with a big potential payday.
Not only are the Ravens quite possibly the most talented team in the league, they are also blessed with one of the easiest schedules. They own the fourth-easiest schedule in terms of opponent win total, which frankly shouldn’t be fair.
They are currently expected to be favored in all 16 games, and the potential AFC Championship preview between the Ravens and Chiefs will be played in Baltimore.
Ultimately, +2500 odds translate to an implied probability of 3.85%. I think that is a bit too low, so I’m willing to throw a small wager on it.
- Pittsburgh Steelers: To win division (+350), Over nine wins (-121)
What? You just said the Ravens might go undefeated. Now you’re betting the Steelers to win the division?
I am, and here’s why: +350 to win the division is not factoring the Steelers’ upside into the equation.
Is there a chance the Ravens run away with the division? Of course! That’s why their massive favorites. But is there also a chance that they win “only” 11 or 12 games? Also yes.
If the latter happens, the Steelers have the potential to leapfrog them in the standings. Their defense is that good, and their offense has big upside if Roethlisberger stays healthy.
Again, this is all about the betting odds. +350 translates to an implied probability of just 22.2%. I think the Steelers win the division at a higher frequency than that, which makes this a bet.
Even if you don’t think they can win the division, you should be hammering the over on their win total. If they can win eight games with Rudolph and Hodges, they can win double-digits with Big Ben.
- Cleveland Browns: Myles Garrett Defensive Player of the Year (+2000)
When we last saw Garrett, he was smashing Rudolph over the head with his helmet. It was a disgusting incident, and he was rightly suspended for the rest of the season.
He’s already been reinstated for the 2020 campaign, and it’s important to look past helmet-gate and remember that he’s one of the most dominant defensive players in the league when on the field. He recorded 10 sacks over just 10 games last season, and he has the potential to keep getting better. He’s still just 24 years old, and he was the No. 1 overall pick in the draft just four years ago.
- Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow Offensive Rookie of the Year (+200)
Burrow is the favorite in this category, and he deserves to be. This award is almost exclusively won by quarterbacks and running backs, and Burrow doesn’t have a ton of competition in those departments.
There were three other QBs taken in the first round, but Burrow is the only one who looks like a guaranteed Week 1 starter. Most of the RBs taken early in the draft also appear to be headed for committee situations. That can always change as the season progresses, but it’s possible that Burrow has already built a sizable lead by that point.
- Bonus: AFC North team to win the Super Bowl (+390)
I love this bet because it allows me to combine my favorite Super Bowl pick (Ravens) with my favorite sleeper (Steelers). I think those teams could realistically wind up as two of the best five teams in football.
