With MMA back in full swing, you can expect to see weekly betting articles from us here at Line Movement, as I’ll be providing you with a sample of plays I like for UFC on ESPN 15 this weekend.
After coming up short last week, I decided to target the more proven products on this card, which is full of last-minute substitutions and lower-level regional fighters. In fact, outside fun fights like Daniel Rodriguez (-190) vs. Takashi Sato (+165) or Austin Hubbard (-105) vs. Joe Solecki (-115), there isn’t much to get excited for or be certain about, as I warn anyone who is betting this Saturday’s set of prelim fights with any strong confidence.
As per usual with my content, I’ll offer my honest analysis as I try to explain my angles and attempt to add to your insight when it comes to both breaking down and betting on fights.
This article is for entertainment purposes only, as I stress to anyone that gambles to do so legally and responsibly.Â
Straight play: Ovince St. Preux +105
Although I was able to grab Ovince Saint Preux at +115, I still believe that there is value on this southpaw veteran if you can get him at a plus number.
Don’t get me wrong: I don’t blame anyone for taking a flier on Alonzo Menifield at his original line of +125, I just don’t know about laying chalk on a fighter who shows little promise or sample size outside of the first round opposite a vet like St. Preux.
Sure, St. Preux’s lack of overall process will always make him a hard fighter to predict on fight night, which is why he, too, is dangerous to bet when installed as the favorite. But with St. Preux’s initial opener of -165 being a lot closer to where I had him lined (-150), then seeing the former title challenger at underdog odds constitutes a shot for me.
My main worry as a St. Preux supporter is his weight cut.
As one of the biggest light heavyweights on the roster, St. Preux has had some hit-and-miss weight cuts that have arguably contributed to the seldom times he’s been stopped. Add in the fact that St. Preux is coming off of a hard-fought heavyweight affair, and things could be even dicier than meets the eye.
That said, when going back to watch St. Preux’s fight with Ben Rothwell, I was somewhat pleasantly surprised.
St. Preux, who made a good account of himself in the sense that he held up to the pace that was put on him, managed to drop Rothwell on several occasions throughout the fight. The Knoxville native also appeared to not make the mistake of blowing up for his heavyweight debut (coming in around his walking weight of 240 lbs.), as St. Preux is reportedly coming into this contest in solid shape.
Although I don’t hate anyone playing props that either involve an early knockout for Menifield or a submission for St. Preux, I believe that there’s more than enough value on the veteran side to justify a shot at dog money.Â
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Prop plays: Pedro Munhoz “inside the distance” -125, Pedro Munhoz “by submission” +500
In what is easily the most anticipated fight of the card, Pedro Munhoz and Frankie Edgar will likely be seeing a lot of action come fight night.
Given that I’m officially calling this a bad matchup for Edgar, then seeing money steadily come in on Munhoz is of no surprise.
From elite scrambling and submission grappling to a fully-fledged striking repertoire, Munhoz offers a lot of potential dead ends for Edgar, who has shown a propensity to get hurt more and establish control less in recent years. Add in the fact that Edgar will be dropping to bantamweight at nearly 39 years of age, and I don’t like how that computes in the durability department (particularly when looking at the bodywork Munhoz puts on people).
Sure, Edgar certainly has the advantage in the later rounds, I’m just not sure the smaller cage and styles match at hand will allow this fight to go past round 3, which is why I think that under 3.5 at -125 also may carry value should the current “inside the distance” line on Munhoz (currently at -125 at the time of this article) continues to get bet up by the public.
I know that chalky prop angles aren’t the most attractive, so I included a sexier angle of “Munhoz by submission” (currently in the neighborhood of +500), which I think has a deceptively potent shot of hitting.
As I explain on this week’s edition of the Line Movement MMA Betting Show (video featured atop article), Munhoz has a side he favors finishing his patent guillotine choke from – which happens to be the same side Edgar gives his head to when finishing his takedowns. Couple that with the fact that wrestlers in MMA tend to go on autopilot and start shooting when hurt, and I think that Edgar – who has yet to be submitted as a pro – is quietly set up to fall hard here.
As a longtime fan of Edgar, I wouldn’t exactly be disappointed in seeing him defy the odds once again. But as an unbiased bettor, I can’t help but see the value in these prop angles should you play at a house that offers them.
Be careful if you’re betting with your heart and good luck regardless, my friends!
