The NFC East sets up as a classic two-team race this season. The Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles finished within a game of each other last year, with a Week 16 matchup (won by Philly 17-9) sending the Eagles on to a 9-7 record and a division win. Dallas or Philadelphia have won this division in six of the last seven years now, and both enter with team win totals of O/U 9.5, significantly higher than both the Giants (O/U 6.5 wins) and the Washington Football Team (O/U 5.5 wins).
Both New York and Washington have new head coaches at the helm and will be hoping their collection of young talent allows them to take a significant step forward. Dallas and Philly have each made some significant moves this offseason, both at the draft and in free agency. They’ll be looking to move out of the “perennial challenger†group they’ve found themselves in the last couple years and up to the level of actual Super Bowl contenders.
As a result of the dichotomy between these four teams, the futures market for the NFC East is sure to have varied opinions. Analysts and fans will take sides over which division leader is better suited to take the crown in 2020 and which rebuilding team – Washington or New York – is more likely to take a leap forward.
*All odds in this article per Blitznet Sportsbook as of August 19th, 2020 and subject to change.
Odds to win the NFC East
- Dallas Cowboys -128
- Philadelphia Eagles +137
- New York Giants +1450
- Washington Redskins +2300
Who does the NFC East play this season?
Outside of each team’s six in-division games, NFC East teams will also square off against opponents from the NFC West and AFC North this year. This means meetings with two of last year’s best teams in the Ravens and 49ers, but also four other clubs that currently have win totals set at O/U 8.5 or better – the Rams, Seahawks, Steelers, and Browns.
Outside of games against the Giants and Washington, the only team Philly and Dallas will face with a win total currently set at under 7-games this year is the Bengals. Both teams have top-10 strength of schedules going into the year, but the Eagles have drawn a tougher schedule as a result of winning the division last season.
Who will win the NFC East?
Choice: Philadelphia Eagles
While the Eagles have a tougher schedule, they have made solid acquisitions to shore up positional weaknesses this year, and they won’t be worrying about the effects of a complete coaching staff overhaul. They’re the more stable franchise so avoiding the public’s infatuation with Dallas here, and taking the plus money for the Eagles to grab another division win, seems like the savvy play.
Who will come in 2nd?
Choice: Dallas Cowboys
The loss of Gerald McCoy (ruptured quad) in training camp could loom large for a defense without a great depth chart. Dallas also struggled against good competition in 2019, going 2-6 against teams with winning records. The massive coaching changes are a huge wildcard to factor in, but a similar season to 2019 could easily be in store here for the Cowboys, who look overpriced as favorites.
Who will come in 3rd?
New York Giants
The Giants are a team with a lot of talent at key offensive skill-positions but with massive question marks nearly everywhere else. Joe Johnson is an inexperienced but hard-nosed head coach who could rally together a youthful squad, while his veteran OC Jason Garrett knows this division very well. If the defense can hold together, the offense has enough talent to pull off some upsets this year but, realistically, any improvement over last year’s four-win season should be seen as progress.
Who will come in 4th?
Washington Football Team
Washington’s current +2300 odds to win the division are the second worst divisional outright odds in the entire league (behind the Jaguars at +2600). They’ve had a terrible off-season and their on-field talent recently suffered a major setback when RB Derrius Guice was released from the team after being charged for domestic violence. Washington could challenge New York for third-place this year but the Giants talent edge at QB – and other offensive skill positions – gives them a slight edge for me at the moment.Â
Team discussion and win totals
Dallas Cowboys
Win Total: O/U 9.5 wins | Division -128 | Conference +830 | Superbowl +1675
Dallas is coming off an 8-8 season in 2019, when they ranked 6th in points scored per game on offense and allowed the 12th-fewest points per game on defense. As mentioned, the Cowboys performed poorly against good competition in 2019, going 2-6 against teams with winning records and losing four of their last six games to cede the division title to Philly.
A big story for the Cowboys this off-season has been QB Dak Prescott’s contract status. Prescott is coming off the best season of his career, having led the NFL in passing yards while posting the fourth-best QBR rating in the league. He’s playing under the franchise tag this year as the two sides couldn’t come to an agreement on a long-term deal. Meanwhile, RB Ezekiel Elliott will look to rebound from a slightly disappointing season where he averaged just 4.5 ypc, down from the 4.7 ypc mark he posted in 2018.
Key off-season moves
Long time head coach Jason Garrett was let go after nine years, despite winning the division in three of the last six seasons. The consensus on the Cowboys was that they simply underperformed too many times under Garrett, which made the move to bring in former Packers Head Coach Mike McCarthy to replace him all the more ironic. McCarthy did win a Superbowl with Green Bay back in 2010 but was generally let go for similar reasons after a long stint in Green Bay, going 11-16-1 over his last two seasons.
The Cowboys made some substantial personnel moves this off-season as well. Veterans Jason Witten and Randall Cobb weren’t brought back, but will be replaced by TE Blake Jarwin and first round draft pick WR Cee Dee Lamb on offense. Lamb should add another layer of explosiveness for Dak Prescott to work with and help to maintain this offense as one of the top scoring units in the league.
Defensively, Dallas lost top-rated corner Byron Jones to free agency, a big blow to this unit. They brought in former pro-bowler Ha Ha Clinton Dixx to bolster the secondary, which could offset the loss to some extent. The Cowboys also lost free agent signee DT Gerald McCoy in the preseason to a ruptured quad, although the late signing of Everson Griffin should soften that blow somewhat. The changes here are interesting and the talent level remains high on both sides of the ball, but it seems like a 50/50 proposition as to whether this team gels in 2020.
Cowboys 2020 schedule and betting analysis
- Tough: @ LAR, @ SEA, vs. SF, @ MIN, @ PHI, @ BAL, vs. PIT
- Medium: vs. ATL, vs. CLE, vs. PHI
- Easy: vs. ARZ, vs. NYG, @ WAS, vs. WAS, @ NYG, @ CIN
The Cowboys actually grade out with the third easiest strength of schedule this season based purely on opponent win percentage from last year. A large part of that stems from their presence in a weak division with two teams projected to win fewer than seven games in the Giants and Washington.
With Dallas’ current win total set at 9.5 (-154), you’re going to have to rely on them to improve against winning teams while also not sliding back on their 5-1 division record from last year. Despite dominating their division, the Cowboys only managed an 8-8 overall record, a stat that makes me want to avoid their win total altogether here. The team feels too talented – and is in too soft a division – to bet on the under, but has so many moving parts that need to come together early that the over feels overpriced.
If you’re a believer in their talent, the better way to bet the Cowboys might be to just take a small piece of them to win the conference at bigger odds. That way, if their talent does start to gel mid-year, you have a nice future to hedge out on later.
Philadelphia Eagles
Win Total: O/U 9.5 wins | Division +137 | Conference +1025 | Superbowl +2300
The Eagles ground their way to a 9-7 record in 2019, winning a late game against Dallas on the road to propel them to a division title. QB Carson Wentz was then knocked out of their wildcard playoff game against the Seahawks, resulting in a 19-7 final in favor of Seattle. Despite the early playoff exit, 2019 marked Philly’s third winning season in a row under head coach Doug Pederson.
The Eagles ranked 12th in points scored on offense, despite losing one of their best playmakers in Desean Jackson to injury early in the season. The Eagles were able to edge the Cowboys due to the fact they went 3-4 against teams with winning records in 2019. Like Dallas, they also went 5-1 in their division. Wentz and his recurring injuries are likely one of the largest storylines for them heading into the new season.
Key offseason moves
The Eagles shocked a few people when they drafted former Alabama star Jalen Hurts in the second round of the draft. The mobile quarterback has drawn some Lamar Jackson comparisons and isn’t a player likely to sit on the sidelines for long. The pick may cause some media driven controversy in the short term, but acts as great insurance in case Wentz incurs yet another injury and should be seen as a net positive for their team.
The Eagles also added Jalen Raeger at WR in the draft, taking him at 21st overall. It was a bit of a surprise pick but the speedster should add good depth to a core that includes veterans like Alshon Jeffery, Desean Jackson, and TE Zach Ertz. Health was an issue for all three of the aforementioned players in 2019 so, if they can see even a slight increase in usage next year, the offense could take a step forward in 2020. Â
Philly made a big acquisition on defense, adding Darius Slay to their Cornerback group. The Eagles have sported one of the weaker secondaries in the league the last few seasons, but Slay and a couple other shifts in personnel offer the potential to turn this area into a strength for the Eagles in 2020.
Eagles 2020 schedule and betting analysis:
- Tough: @SF, @PIT, vs.BAL, @DAL, @GB, vs.NO
- Medium: vs.LAR, vs.DAL, @CLE, vs.SEA, @ARZ
- Easy: vs.NYG, @NYG, vs.WAS, @WAS, vs. CIN
The Eagles have a very similar schedule to the Cowboys, although it rates out with a couple tougher games given the matchups they have with divisional winners. The good news for the Eagles is that some of their tougher opponents on the schedule will be playing in Philly. The Eagles have posted winning records at home in each of the last three seasons, going 17-7 at home during that span.
As you can probably guess, betting on the over 9.5 win total is a slightly more attractive bet for me here than it was for Dallas. The Eagles have added talent to an already solid core and coaching staff, and they seem less likely than Dallas to struggle out of the gates in 2020. That said, the future bet that still makes the most sense for me is betting the Eagles at plus-money (+137 currently on Blitzbet) to win the division. If they do end up hitting their over in the win total department (10-wins), there’s a great chance they’ll have locked up the division title as well.
As a conference championship winner or Super Bowl future, they also make a touch more sense at slightly inflated odds to Dallas. Additionally, Philly has had far more success in the post-season of late compared to Dallas, as Head Coach Doug Pederson brings in a 4-2 playoff record over the last three years.
New York Giants
Win Total: O/U 6.5 wins | Division +1450 | Conference +4400 | Superbowl +7900
The Giants ended last season with a 4-12 record, enduring a terrible campaign in which they allowed the third-most points per game on defense. 2019 was ultimately a huge transition year for the Giants, as they said goodbye to QB Eli Manning and ushered in the Daniel Jones era. Jones was New York’s highly criticized first-round pick from 2019, but he played well given the situation he was thrust into.
Jones threw for 24 TDs and ran for two more in just 12 starts for the G-men in 2019, and his progression in 2020 will dictate whether this team can make some kind of jump back to respectability. RB and 2017 first-round pick Saquon Barkley’s return to health will also be a big storyline. He was at far less than 100% for most of 2019, but his return to health late in the year allowed the Giants to go 2-1 over their final three games.
Key offseason moves
The Giants went through massive coaching changes in the off-season. The hiring of inexperienced former Patriot assistant coach Joe Judge was a move out of left field, though his hard-nosed approach could be a good thing for the bumbling Giants, who have managed to collect an interesting group of young talent after multiple terrible seasons in a row. New York also brought in former Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett to run the offense.
The Giants didn’t bring in any huge names in free agency, and went strictly O-Line and defense during the draft, taking OL Andrew Thomas at fourth overall. It could be looked at as a conservative pick but the Giants ranked in the bottom half of the league in sacks allowed each of the past two seasons, so shoring up that part of their team should be beneficial for their 2020 prospects.
Giants 2020 schedule and betting analysis:
- Tough: vs.PIT, vs.SF, @DAL, @LAR, @PHI, vs.PHI, vs.DAL, @BAL, @SEA
- Medium: @CHI, vs.TB, vs.CLE, vs.ARZ
- Easy : vs.WAS, @WAS, @CIN
The Giants’ team total is set at 6.5 wins this year. The good news for over bettors is that they have three soft match-ups against WAS (twice) and the Bengals. The bad news is, at this point, they would almost certainly be set as decent underdogs against everyone else on their schedule. Even if they were able to improve to a .500 record in their division, there’s no guarantee they’ll manage to find four more wins, as even Cincinnati figures to be much improved after adding Joe Burrow at QB.
The under line on Blitzbet is currently set at -149 (Under 6.5 wins), which is still very bettable for a team that went 2-4 in their division last season, and has two division leaders who don’t figure to drop off much, if at all. There’s no sense in looking too hard at their conference or Super Bowl futures. The bet here is under 6.5 and it looks like one of the best future targets when breaking down this division.
Washington Football Team
Win Total: O/U 5.5 wins | Division +2300 | Conference +6900 | Superbowl +14900
The Washington Football Team is coming off a disastrous 2019 in which they posted a 3-13 record. They went through numerous changes that included firing head coach Jay Gruden mid-season. Washington started last year’s first-round draft pick Dwayne Haskins at QB for seven of the last eight games. He was only able to muster a 76.1 QB rating, however, throwing just seven TDs versus seven INTs.
Third-round draft pick Terry McClaurin was one bright spot for Washington in 2019, as the rookie WR posted 919 receiving yards and seven TDs in just 14 games. This is a team with issues on and off the field right now, so even a slight improvement over their 2019 campaign will likely be viewed as a positive. The bar here is not high.
Key offseason moves
Washington is one of three teams in this division to have undergone a change at head coach this offseason, bringing in former Carolina skip Ron Rivera to lead things in 2020. Considering some of the stories that came out of Washington during the later stages of Jay Gruden’s tenure, getting a well respected leader like Rivera should be a positive move, at least in the short term.
Player-wise, Washington didn’t add any big free agent names, but did have an active off-season for other reasons. RB Derrius Guice was cut due to domestic violence charges, leaving 35-year-old Adrian Peterson in lead back duties. Third-round draft pick Antonio Gibson should also be involved here and could add an element of explosiveness to an offense that finished dead-last in points scored in 2019. On defense, first-round pick Chase Young could make Washington’s pass rush one of the best in the league in 2020, as they already ranked-10th in sacks per game last season.
Washington 2020 schedule and betting analysis:
- Tough: @PIT, @SF, @DAL, vs.LAR, @PHI, vs.PHI, vs.DAL, vs.BAL, vs.SEA
- Medium: @ARZ, @CLE, @DET
- Easy : vs.NYG, vs.CIN, @NYG, vs.CAR
Like New York, Washington faces an enormous task just to beat last year’s win total. Facing off against powerhouse divisions like the AFC North and NFC West offer few winnable non-division games outside the matchup with Cincinnati. The under bet here isn’t as attractive as the Giants though, as Washington has a smaller win total at 5.5 wins, plus some added stability at head coach. They also have a slightly easier schedule than New York, with more winnable matchups against Carolina and Detroit (versus the Giants’ meetings with Chicago and Tampa Bay).
It sounds outlandish but, when considering the +100 odds on the over – verus -137 for the under – it does seem like the slightly more attractive bet. The smart move is likely to just avoid this situation altogether. The market has priced in the Washington Football Team’s upcoming terribleness already so, unless their win total number moves higher or lower, there are better places to look for season-long wagers.
NFC East Favorite Bets
- Philly to win division +137
- New York Giants under 6.5 wins -149
