We have gradually gone from the least competitive division in the AFC to the most competitive. There are three teams in the AFC South who are legitimate contenders to win the division. The odds for the four teams are:
Odds to win the AFC South:
- Colts (+125)
- Titans (+150)
- Texans (+350)
- Jaguars (+2500)
The Titans and Texans were playoff teams last year and the Colts made notable offseason upgrades.
Who does the AFC South play this season?
As mentioned in the other AFC previews, each season the divisions are paired up with a chosen division in the opposite conference – (NFC/AFC) to make up one-fourth of their schedule. This year, the AFC South is paired with the NFC North which contains the Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, and the Minnesota Vikings.
Of these four teams, none are in the top 10 in odds to win the Super Bowl, making this cross-conference matchup the most favorable of the four AFC divisions.
Outside of the NFC North, and the traditional six games against division opponents, the remaining games are against a rotation of same-conference opponents.
Who will win the AFC South
Indianapolis Colts +125
The Colts made some offseason changes that we will discuss and they jump to favorites to win the division because of it. A team that is still trying to recover from Andrew Luck bailing on them in favor of retirement went out and signed a short term fix in Philip Rivers while they have some win now pieces.
The Titans are surely going to have something to say about that as they are coming off an AFC Championship game loss to the eventual Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs.
This Colts team is built to run the football and control the time of possession. However, the question is whether or not the defense is built for that style of play as they ranked 18th in points allowed per game in 2019. I wouldn’t back them as favorites in this division as I think they are the 2nd best team.
Tennessee Titans +150
Speaking of the Titans having a say about the Colts being the favorites, they are my pick to win this division. I would absolutely back them at +150 odds. They have made some improvements on the defensive side of the ball which allows them to play the offensive style that the Colts want to play: control the clock and run the football. Perhaps you have heard of Derrick Henry and how he steals defense’s souls when running over their linebackers? The Titans are going to rely on Henry and the defense to a division win.
Houston Texans +350
Anytime your team has a quarterback as gifted as Deshaun Watson, you have a chance to win each time you step on the field. Part of the issue with the Texans though is the fact that they took Watson’s best weapon DeAndre Hopkins away when they traded him to the Cardinals for running back David Johnson. The Houston defense has also done them no favors as they ranked 23rd in points allowed in 2019, and is the sole reason I have doubts about them being able to sneak away with a division win.
Jacksonville Jaguars +2500
The Jaguars are in rebuild mode. They have traded away big name defensive players as well as releasing their starting running back from the last three years, Leonard Fournette. Gardner Minshew is exciting, but he’s not going to carry them to a division win and the defense isn’t going to be very good.
Indianapolis Colts outlook
As mentioned, the Colts made some roster upgrades during the offseason. While I don’t think they should have better odds than the Titans, they have a real shot to win the division.
Free agent acquisitions
Philip Rivers headlines the free agent acquisitions for the Colts in the offseason. While Rivers is approaching the end of his career as he gets older, he is still a serviceable quarterback that can head a playoff team. You have to go all the way back to 2012 to find the last time Rivers threw for less than 4,000 yards. 2019 was also the first season he threw less than 28 TDs (23) since 2012 when he threw 26. In an offense where Rivers can be more of a game manager, I think he can cut down on his mistakes as interceptions have been his one plague.
The other big name free agent the Colts signed is cornerback Xavier Rhodes. Rhodes had an atrocious 2019 season, but he is still a big, physical cornerback who can benefit from a change of scenery. Rhodes allowed an 82% catch rate and a 124 rating last year, which is significantly worse than his 61% catch rate and 85 passer rating in 2018. Look for a possible bounce back year from Rhodes.
Trade Acquisition
The Colts made another big acquisition via trade when they gave up their first round draft pick for DeForest Buckner, defensive tackle from the NFC champion 49ers. Buckner has been a good performer in both run defense and pass rush and brings a great all-around presence to the defensive line that needed help. They ranked 15th in adjusted line yards allowed and 21st in adjusted sack rate per Football Outsiders.
Draft picks
The Colts made another offensive splash when they took the arguably best running back prospect in Jonathan Taylor. Taylor absolutely smashed at Wisconsin running for around 2,000 yards in all three seasons in college. Taylor gets to run behind one of the best offensive lines in the league as the Colts have been near the top in terms of adjusted line yards the last few seasons.
Narratives to look for
Can Rivers come in and give the Colts enough of a boost on offense to take them back to the playoffs? He may not have to do but so much if they can play good enough defense and continue to run the ball successfully.
Tennessee Titans outlook
The Titans snuck into the playoffs last year at 9-7, but they rode their hot streak all the way to the AFC championship game. They look to repeat their 2nd half run over the course of the full season this year.
Some are calling the Titans magical run last year just that, a magical run or a fluke. I think the Titans have the groundwork to repeat their success. Their team is built on running the football and the play-action pass. Their defense looks slightly different on paper this year, but it should still produce at a high enough level to allow the run game behind King Henry (Derrick Henry) to be the focal point.
Key offseason moves
The Titans biggest offseason move happens to be their most recent one. They just signed free agent Jadeveon Clowney to bolster their pass rush. Clowney is coming off a down year in Seattle, but the defensive scheme change from a zone heavy Seahawks defense to a man heavy Titans scheme that draws up more blitzes should only benefit Clowney in getting after the quarterback.
The Titans other pass rusher they brought in is Vic Beasley. You have to go back to 2016 to find the last double digit sack season for Beasley, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t an upgrade. Beasley had eight sacks for the terrible Falcons defense in 2019 as he was their lone bright spot.
Draft Picks
The Titans first few draft picks this year fit their narrative. Their first round pick addressed an OLine need. Their second round pick was a cornerback who should be able to mix in, but won’t be required to start right away. Their third round pick is a back up running back. Essentially none of these draft picks are high impact players, but more so depth pieces.
Narratives to look for
Can re-signing Tannehill and relying on King Henry bring the Titans to the same success they had in 2019? I think they can repeat as a playoff team as their blueprint for controlling the game and running the ball is still intact.
Houston Texans outlook
The Texans don’t have a defense but they do have something that no other team in the division has and that’s Deshaun Watson. It’s worth stating again that any time Watson is on your team, you have a chance to win.
Key offseason moves
The Texans biggest offseason move was trading DeAndre Hopkins for David Johnson, which didn’t make much sense. When you have a guy like Watson, you give him more weapons to throw to, not take his best one away.
David Johnson figures to be the featured back in the offense as Carlos Hyde has departed for Seattle. Johnson has been electric for the Cardinals until he was derailed with a couple injuries. Regardless, after a healthy offseason Johnson looks to regain his explosive form.
The Texans also gave up a 2nd round pick for Brandin Cooks from the Rams. Cooks is a known speedster who has been plagued with concussion issues recently. However, when healthy Cooks can push for being the top option in a pass game. Will Fuller looks to compete with Cooks for the most targets.
The Texans bolstered their receiving core, if you want to call it that, by signing Randall Cobb to be their slot receiver. Cobb benefited from the monster year Dak Prescott had in Dallas, but showed he still has some production left in the tank going for 800 yards as a secondary option.
Draft selections
The Texans had traded their first round pick away, leaving them to draft players that serve as depth and not immediate contributors. They also focused their draft on non-skill positions such as the defensive line where they spent their 2nd round pick. The Texans are slated to start no rookies at the beginning of the year.
Narratives to look for
Just how good can Watson be? We are going to find out because he is going to have to single handedly carry this team.
Jacksonville Jaguars outlook
Most divisions have a bottom feeder team that isn’t very good and the Jaguars are just that in the AFC South. They are going to have to score a ton of points just to be remotely competitive because their defense is not going to be good.
Key offseason moves
The Jaguars didn’t really make any moves that made them better. They traded Nick Foles, Calais Campbell, and Yannick Ngakoue and they released Leonard Fournette. All of these were among the best players on the team last year. Campbell and Ngakoue were the heart and soul of the Jags front seven and they are no longer there. It’s going to be a rough season.
Draft selections
The Jaguars did do well in the draft however. They had two first round picks that they used on a cornerback (CJ Henderson) and an EDGE (K’Lavon Chasson). Then they spent their third rounder on wide receiver Laviska Shenault who could work in game one as the starting slot receiver.
All three of these players can make an impact from day one, the issue is it won’t be enough of an impact to result in wins this year.
Narratives to look for
The Jaguars won’t win many games, but the question is just how few? Their win total currently sits at 4.5 games which is less than the Jets win total of 6.5. That’s bad.
Division/Conference/Super Bowl bets
Betting any of these teams to win the AFC or Super Bowl feels like a mistake. These teams don’t have the firepower to beat the Chiefs or Ravens. This division also is playing the weakest NFC division which will lead to inflated win totals that aren’t representative of true team talent when compared to the best teams in the league.
Win totals
- Indianapolis Colts 9
- Tennessee Titans 8.5
- Houston Texans 7.5
- Jacksonville Jaguars 4.5
I like betting both the Colts and Titans to go over their win total. As mentioned, they’re the two best teams in this division. They also get the luxury of playing the weakest NFC division for four games which can help inflate their win totals. This will be a competitive division internally, but they aren’t ready to compete with the top teams yet.Â
