Dan Tom’s favorite lines for UFC Vegas 10

With MMA back in full swing, you can expect to see weekly betting articles from us here at Line Movement, as I’ll be providing you with a sample of plays I like for UFC Vegas 10 this weekend. 

With COVID-19 rearing it’s head once again, we saw both of our official offerings in Alexander Romanov and Jailin Turner (who have each received last-minute bookings in favorable fights for this card) canceled before showtime, as I hope you were able to tail on my original Ovince Saint Preux play last week. And with Turner and Romanov’s re-bookings looking to have steep lines attached, I’ll be turning my attention elsewhere this Saturday.

This article is for entertainment purposes only, as I stress to anyone, that gambles to do so legally and responsibly. 

UFC Vegas 10 Main event

UFC Vegas 10 will feature a newly-minted main event between Michelle Waterson (+105) and Angela Hill (-125). 

Although I’m officially siding with Hill to pull away with striking volume late, I can’t help but callout myself and others for perhaps picking with our hearts here. 

Don’t get me wrong: Hill is a fan favorite for good reason and Waterson has a strong fanbase of her own; I just believe that the current climate kinda has us collectively picking this fight like a popularity contest at the lunch table. So, even though my heart is clearly with Hill to win, the bettor in me can’t help but see a potential opportunity in fading everyone’s feeling.

Yes, I believe that Hill has made the bigger strides over recent years, as her Donald Cerrone-like activity could certainly knock Waterson clean off the tracks, and none of us should be surprised for it. That said, despite Waterson’s striking arguably being overrated, the former Invicta champ does wield some underrated wrestling from the clinch that could be a real factor in this fight. 

I’m not sure I see Waterson submitting Hill, but do not be surprised to see strategic, point-scoring takedowns at play come Saturday. Even green atomweights like Loma Lookboonme (who I love, by the way) were able to score takedowns on Hill, which could be problematic. For that reason, the value is on the dog here.

Co-main event

The co-main event on ESPN+ will feature an impromptu meeting between potent finishers Khama Worthy (-135) and Ottman Azaitar (+115).

With Worthy initially opening as the underdog (+105), the public was quick to jump on veteran, and for good reason. Between knocking out Devonte Smith and submitting Luis Pena, Worthy has chalked up some of the biggest upsets (by the numbers) over the past 12 months.

However, as the price continues to push the line wider, it becomes harder to ignore the life-changing power that Azaitar appears to carry.

Part of a pack who run shop in parts of the Middle East, Azaitar seems as heavy-handed as his brother Abu (which became apparent in his seizure-inducing knockout win over Teemu Packalen). Nevertheless, it’s also hard for me to ignore the fact that Azaitar is even less experienced in martial arts than his brother, carrying an even more suspect strength of schedule.

Add in the fact that Azaitar has only seen the third round once in his entire career, and it becomes clear that this is an early-knockout-or-bust scenario. Sure, Worthy has technically been knocked out five times, but those all came earlier in his career when he was fighting at featherweight (which was a weight class he arguably should never have been cutting to). 

For that reason, I’ll be siding with Worthy as I don’t blame anyone who is still interested in taking a shot on him – even at his current point of entry. 

As per usual with my content, I’ll offer my honest analysis as I try to explain my angles and attempt to add to your insight when it comes to both breaking down and betting on fights. 

Live dogs: Roxanne Modafferi +265

With underdogs that I actually sided with like Khama Worthy (-135) and Matt Frevola (-105) being quickly bet up to favorite odds, there’s admittedly not a lot I like on this card as far as plus money goes. 

Of course, for the reasons I explained in the open of this article, Michelle Waterson at plus money is absolutely live, as well. But when looking at the bigger underdogs across the board, I found it hard to ignore Roxanne Modafferi (+265), who faces Andrea Lee on Saturday’s main card.

Despite officially siding with Lee to win a competitive decision, this fight is a lot closer than the odds lead on. Aside from the obvious fact that Modafferi already owns a victory over Lee in another organization, Lee has a tendency to make fights appear closer than they actually are.

Sure, she may have taken their initial booking six years ago on short notice, but Lee – at least in my eyes – tends to fight with a troublesome body language that makes her appear more tired or hurt than she actually is. So, between that and her sometimes-predictable “wind up” style of fighting, I believe that Lee can sometimes dissuade her own high-volume efforts in the judges’ eyes. 

Add in the fact that Lee also has a propensity to grapple herself into both positional and pacing holes, and this fight is ripe for an upset. 

Outside of Modafferi, Ed Herman (+205) is another big dog who I’ll be rooting for despite picking against. Good luck if you’re taking any plus money shots this weekend.

Biggest value on the card: Bobby Green -255

Whether you’re looking for a parlay piece or are a serious bettor looking to lay some chalk, I believe that Bobby Green (-255) is your guy.

As I’ve been saying since the beginning of this pandemic era of fighting, veteran fighters with the style and swagger of Green have a real chance to shine (as Green as shined for us on previous sheets).

Green is a slick, counter-style boxer who often gets his straight shots and lands overlooked due to his verbal gamesmanship, as well as the fact that live crowds tend to overwhelm the sensors for who is actually landing more effectively. Against a fighter like Alan Patrick (who pretty much just offers window dressing on the feet), I don’t see Green encountering any real threats.

Furthermore, Patrick is also a 37-year-old lightweight who hasn’t fought in two years, as this current climate is not a kind one to return to. Patrick is a decent Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt who can score takedowns, but his positional control and closing skills aren’t exactly the sharpest, which is problematic in this matchup.

Green is a superb scrambler who comes from a wrestling base – something everyone always seems to forget. The 34-year-old has seldom been controlled on the floor or against the fence for the entirety of his career, as I have seriously have a hard time seeing how Patrick wins this fight.

I apologize for not offering any strong leans prior, but I feel uncharacteristically strong here. 

I believe that Green should’ve been opened in the neighborhood of -350 (and likely bet to a near -440 close), as anything near -250 is a steal in this spot. If you’re not trying to lay that much chalk, then you can always up your value by parlaying Green with someone like Billy Quarantillo (-250), who I think – outside of a perfectly-placed shot put on his chin – wins outright opposite Kyle Nelson.

Regardless of what you’re betting, bet responsibly, my friends!