Dan Tom’s favorite lines for UFC Vegas 11. Covington vs Woodley

With MMA back in full swing, you can expect to see weekly betting articles from us here at Line Movement, as I’ll be providing you with a sample of plays I like for UFC Vegas 11 this weekend. 

Although COVID-19 seems to be striking every fight card, last week’s betting sheet fared very well for those who were following along. I’ll be sticking to a similar format this week, which will, in turn, allow me to cover a lot of bases in regards to parsing through straight plays, props and playable chalk. 

This article is for entertainment purposes only, as I stress to anyone, that gambles to do so legally and responsibly. 

Covington vs Woodley

Saturday’s UFC offering via ESPN+ will be headlined by a welterweight grudge match between Colby Covington (-345) and Tyron Woodley (+285).

Whether you like the favorite or the underdog, there is only one angle to play this fight – and that’s the money line.

Sure, Covington “by decision” is currently sitting at a playable entry point of -145, but I have a hard time recommending chalk props that, in reality, aren’t too far off price-wise from taking a side straight up. And though I do believe that Woodley is a lot tougher of an out than recently given credit for, I feel there are enough factors from stylistic to intangible that keep a Covington finish firmly on the table of possibilities. 

I officially picked Covington to win this fight by decision, but I also warned anyone who is overlooking the controversial contender’s improved boxing. Despite losing in his last outing, Covington demonstrated some solid upgrades in his hands, landing hard and sneaky check-right hooks. Couple that with the fact that Woodley recently had his left eye badly cut by Gilbert Burns in his last battle just three months ago, and what we have is a serious recipe for things to get bloody between these two.

For that reason, I suggest sticking to the money lines when making your plays here, as well as considering Covington as a serious parlay piece. 

Cerrone vs Price

The co-main event in Las Vegas features a fight between fan-favorites Donald Cerrone (+130) and Niko Price (-150) that has fireworks written all over it.

On the surface, this fight looks like a modern-day Doc Holiday taking on James Franco’s character from “Spring Breakers,” and is likely as unpredictable as it sounds. 

It’s hard to imagine a world where Cerrone is on a four-fight losing streak, yet here we are. Sure, we can look at who he fought in those losses and who Cerrone has beaten overall, but miles are miles and the 14-year, 50-plus fight pro isn’t getting any younger at 37. 

That said, Cerrone is a fighter who I’ve admittedly been hot and cold on in picking. Traditionally, Cerrone rolls over any fighter – at welterweight or lightweight – who isn’t firmly within the division’s top 10. 

Still, it’s hard to discount Price here (as he’s someone I’ve mistakenly overlooked in the past). Despite stumbling onto the scene as a “herky-jerky” wildman, Price has been a big overachiever in regards to beating both opponents and betting lines alike.

Despite relying far too heavily on his ability to absorb damage and give it back, Price has quietly been making improvements in the defense department. Whether he’s doing a better job at managing distance or checking leg kicks, the 30-year-old from South Florida shows a lot of the needed skills when facing a threat like Cerrone, who owns the impressive statistic of “most leg kicks landed in UFC history.”

If Cerrone can avoid or absorb the big shots early, then he has a real shot of upsetting the odds by either out-working Price to a decision or submitting him on the floor. But between Price being a Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt and finally moving shop to a camp like MMA Masters (which specializes in BJJ and leg kicks), I tend to like his chances as 15 minutes is a long time to be in a cage with one of the most craziest Floridians in the sport.

Price by TKO/KO is in the neighborhood of +130 if you’re looking for plus-money angles to play the favorite at, but this battle is likely a dog-or-pass scenario that I suggest you sprinkle lightly on (if you decide to play at all). Instead, I’ll focus more on some plays and props that I like a bit better down below. 

As per usual with my content, I’ll offer my honest analysis as I try to explain my angles and attempt to add to your insight when it comes to both breaking down and betting on fights. 

Live dogs: Ryan Spann +105

With underdogs that I actually sided with like Journey Newson (who opened at +155) and Jordan Espinosa (who opened at +145) being quickly bet up to favorite odds, I ended up siding with Ryan Spann (who opened at -105) at +105.

Spann faces fellow light heavyweight Johnny Walker, who stepped on to the UFC stage with a lot of hype behind him. However, after dropping the ball badly in his last two outings, many seem to be questioning the once-hailed contender.

Any 205 pounder with the athleticism and frame of Walker should certainly be respected, as I’ve admittedly been on the wrong side of some of the Brazilian’s highlight-reel performances. That said, I also believe that my initial read on Walker was validated the more we got to see of him, as I’m still not sold on his skills ceiling or gas tank.

Say what you will about Spann’s strategy and overall performance opposite Sam Alvey, the grappling propensity of the 29-year-old Texan will likely serve him well in this fight. Even if Spann isn’t able to initially secure takedowns, grappling with Walker against the fence will immediately start to sway the percentages in the American’s favor given that Walker’s main path to victory is a first-round knockout.

Yes, Spann has been hurt late in fights as he can’t afford to fall asleep at the steering wheel (should he not score an early finish himself), but I see Spann’s length playing a crucial role in matching Walker’s width and leverage in close spaces – something that the Brazilian probably isn’t used to.

For that reason, I’ll be siding with Spann to get Fortis MMA back on track with a win here. I’m not telling you that this is a cliff you need to follow me off of, but I will be lightly playing Spann straight, as well as sprinkling on “Spann by submission” (+550) and “Spann wins in round 3” (+1050) to help settle my degenerate appetite. 

Fighter to target: Kevin Holland -265

Whether you’re looking for a parlay piece or are a serious bettor looking to lay some chalk, I believe that Kevin Holland (-265) is your guy.

Akin to why I’m so high on fighters like Bobby Green during this pandemic era, I also believe that Holland has all the hallmarks of swagger – from sneaky counters to verbal gamesmanship – to thrive in the current environment.

Holland faces Darren Stewart, who able to upset us last time out by scoring this first-career submission against Maki Pitolo. Betting business aside, it was nice to see Stewart finally start to add to his game in that respect, but I’m not sure it gets him very far here.

Grappling upgrades aside, Stewart still seems to be a fighter who ultimately relies on either knocking his opposition stiff or by convincing himself – beyond a shadow of a doubt – that he is in control of the fight. 

If the Englishman doesn’t get these boxes checked within the first half of the contest, then he seems very potent to fall apart. And against a durable, loud-mouthed foe like Holland, I’m not sure Stewart will have his say. 

For that reason, I suspect that Holland – who tends to get his shots in exchanges overlooked – will end up toying with Stewart standing until forcing his English counterpart into making a mistake that results in a guillotine submission for the American. 

If Holland’s current asking price is too chalky for your blood, then you can tail me utilizing him as a key parlay piece for Saturday (e.g. I paired Holland up with Jessica-Rose Clark at -230 for roughly -102). I also took a shot on “Holland by submission” (+500), which is how I ultimately see this fight ending. 

Regardless of what you’re betting, bet responsibly, my friends!