NFL Week 2 main slate betting preview

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Dalvin Cook running with ball
Sep 8, 2019; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Vikings running back Dalvin Cook (33) runs the ball against the Atlanta Falcons during the third quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Harrison Barden-USA TODAY Sports

We got off to a rough start in Week 1. My main slate picks went just 2-6 — please excuse me while a vomit in my mouth a little — but I was able to finish the week on a strong note. I nailed my one game bet on the Monday Night Football doubleheader and also hit four out of five player prop bets.

With that in mind, I’m optimistic heading into Week 2. Just like when you have a crappy round of golf but hit a beautiful drive off the 18th tee, I’m ready to get right back out there.

Luckily, Week 2 is also one of my favorite weeks of the betting season. We know a little bit more than we did heading into Week 1, but the keyword in that sentence is “little”. Most people will be willing to make sweeping conclusions after just one week — Aaron Rodgers is an MVP candidate, the 49ers are a fraud, Washington can win the NFC East — but making any sort of classification after just ONE GAME is dangerous.

People are especially quick to jump to conclusions if the Week 1 result mirrored their preseason expectation. If you believed Rodgers was going to have a massive F-U season, you’re probably already taking victory laps. Obviously that outcome is still on the table, but it’s also possible that we’ve seen him play the best he’ll play all season.

This is why fading public perception early in the season gives you a massive edge in sports betting. Historically, betting on teams that are receiving less than 30% of the public betting action in Week 2 and Week 3 has resulted in a record of 95-65-3 against the spread. That’s good for an ROI of 15.5%.

There are currently nine teams that fit this description heading into Week 2, so make sure to keep your eyes posted on public betting numbers heading into Sunday.

Let’s take a look at the 13 games available on the Sunday Week 2 main slate.

Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles (pk) — 45.5 total

Moneylines: Rams -112/Eagles -104

The Eagles are the first stop on our tour of teams that the public wants nothing to do with. They saw how badly their offensive line got manhandled by the Washington Football Team in Week 1, allowing QB Carson Wentz to get sacked eight times. The Rams had the seventh-highest adjusted sack rate in 2020, so they’re receiving just 27% of the spread bets in this contest.

That said, the Eagles’ offensive line should be in a bit better shape in Week 2. They will still be without Brandon Brooks and Andre Dillard — who are both out for the year — but all-world RT Lane Johnson said he plans on playing. Johnson had an 88.8 Pro Football Focus grade in 2019, making him one of the best tackles in the league.

The shift in public perception on these teams has also caused the line to shift pretty drastically. The advance line on this game was Eagles -3.5, and it got as high as Rams -1.5 before ultimately setting at zero. That’s a pretty massive line movement considering there really haven’t been any injuries on either side. In fact, the Eagles have the potential to be healthier for this contest than they were in Week 1.

Starting RB Miles Sanders is reportedly “on track to play” vs. the Rams according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter. They do have a few key defenders listed as questionable — Brandon Graham, Derek Barnett, and Javon Hargrave — so their status will be important to monitor as the week progresses.

Ultimately, I’m going to take a wait-and-see approach on this contest. I think the play is either the Eagles or pass, but I’d like to see some updated injury reports before locking in a wager. If the Eagles will have Johnson, Sanders, and some of their defensive lineman active, I will likely be targeting them in a buy-low spot.

Saturday Update: Things are looking pretty good for the Eagles from an injury perspective. Johnson and Sanders have both been taken off the injury report completely, and Brandon Graham was able to practice in full on Friday. Alshon Jeffrey is the only player who has been ruled out after being listed as questionable, and he’s not all that important to the Eagles passing game at this point in time.

The sharps are also continuing to tee off on the Eagles. They’re still receiving just 29% of the spread bets — which qualifies them for the above trend — but those bets have accounted for 58% of the money wagered. I did miss the best of the number by waiting, but I’m still happy to grab the Eagles at -1.5. We’re still getting some value compared to the initial line of Eagles -3.

The Pick: Eagles -1.5

Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-9) — 47.5 total

Moneylines: Panthers +329/Buccaneers -418

The Tom Brady era did not get off to a good start in Week 1. He struggled to get on the same page as his talented WRs — Mike Evans and Chris Godwin combined for just 81 receiving yards — and Brady finished with just 239 yards, two TDs, and two INTs. One of those interceptions got returned for a touchdown, and Brady finished with an adjusted yards per attempt (AYA) of just 5.25. That was the sixth-lowest mark among all 32 QBs in Week 1.

Still, it’s hard to fault Brady too much for struggling. After all, it was his first game with a new team after a very abbreviated training camp, so the chemistry between him and his receivers is still a work in progress. It was also a tough matchup vs. the Saints, who ranked eighth in defensive DVOA last season. Evans was also questionable all week with a hamstring injury, so it’s possible he wasn’t playing at full strength.

Things should get much easier for him this week vs. the Panthers. They finished just 26th in defensive DVOA last season and lost Luke Kuechly to retirement. Keuchly was one of the best players in football since entering the league in 2012, so that is obviously a massive blow to their defense.

The Panthers surrendered 34 points to the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 1, and they didn’t record a single sack in that contest. Brady has historically been a surgeon when given time to sit in the pocket and read defenses, so this could be a prime get-right spot for him.

The public betting numbers on this game have been pretty even — the Panthers are at 52% of the spread bets currently while the Bucs are at 48% — but there has been one “steam move” tracked on the Bucs at -8. The Bucs have gotten as high as -10.5 at certain locations across the industry, so it will be interesting to see if the line continues to move against them.

It also should be noted just how dominant Brady has historically been coming off a loss. Since 2004, Brady has posted a mark of 36-14 against the spread following a loss. That’s good for a cover rate of 72% in that situation, making him by far the most profitable QB in football over that time frame.

It remains to be seen if Brady’s dominant betting trends can continue in Tampa Bay — he’s historically good as an underdog but didn’t cover in that situation vs. the Saints — but I’m certainly not ready to close the book on him after just one start.

This spread is a smidge high for me to actually take the Bucs, but I’m not willing to bet against them either.

Saturday Update: This is still looking like a pass for me, but the sharps appear to have some interest in the Panthers. They’re currently receiving 85% of the money on just 49% of the bets, which is a pretty massive differential. If you like to back the pros — which is definitely advisable — the Panthers look like the play.

The Pick: Pass

Denver Broncos @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-7.5) — 41.5 total

Moneylines: Broncos +287/Steelers -347

This is an interesting contest between two teams that will be playing on short rest. Both of these teams played on Monday night, so both will have one less day than usual to prepare. That can occasionally lead to a betting edge if one coach is significantly better than the other in short-rest situations, but that doesn’t appear to be the case here. Mike Tomlin is historically 15-13-2 with less than seven days between games, while Vance Joseph is 3-4.

Both of these teams were able to cover in Week 1, albeit in very different ways. The Steelers pretty much dominated the Giants in their win, particularly on the defensive end. They finished with two forced turnovers and three sacks, and that probably undersells how dominant their defensive line was. Bud Dupree lived in the Giants’ backfield and was a big reason why Saquon Barkley came close to making history on Monday:

On the other hand, the Broncos probably didn’t deserve to cover in their contest vs. the Titans. Stephen Gostkowski left 10 points on the field — he missed three FGs and one extra point — but the Titans were still able to squeak out a two-point win. The Broncos were outgained by more than 50 yards in that contest, so the fact that Gostkowski was able to win the game with a late FG was justified.

So who has the edge in this contest? I actually think the Broncos look like a pretty sharp target.

For starters, the Steelers’ offensive line had a plethora of injuries in their Week 1 matchup. Starting RT Zach Banner tore his ACL and will be forced to miss the rest of the season, while Stefen Wisnewski was forced to leave early vs. the Giants due to a pectoral injury. He’s currently listed as questionable for this matchup, as is their best offensive lineman in David Decastro. That could leave the Steelers without three of their five usual starters vs. the Broncos.

The Broncos defensive line isn’t all that intimidating without Von Miller, but they still have some guys who can get to the QB. Bradley Chubb in particular was the No. 5 pick in the 2018 draft and finished with 12.0 sacks as a rookie. He was limited to just four games in 2019 due to injuries, but he could bounce-back in just his third season. They also signed Jurrell Casey as a free agent during the offseason, who is an excellent interior pass rusher.

This line has also jumped from 5.5 to 7.5 following the Steelers impressive performance in Week 1, which gives us a few additional points of spread value with the Broncos. The sharps have definitely grabbed those points to start the week, with the Broncos receiving 65% of the spread money despite garnering just 40% of the best.

I’m going to lock in the Broncos now at -7.5 since I think this is the best line we’re going to get. If the Steelers’ offensive line gets a bit healthier before gametime, I can always look to hedge later in the week.

Saturday update: The Steelers have ruled out DeCastro for this matchup, and they placed Wisnewski on the IR. That’s great news if you locked in the Broncos +7.5 early in the week. The Broncos’ defensive line isn’t as dominant as the Redskins, but this looks very similar to that matchup from Week 1.

This line has dropped from 7.5 to 7.0, and I would recommend grabbing it now if you haven’t already done so.

The Pick: Broncos +7.

Sep 13, 2020; Inglewood, California, USA; Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) throws a pass against the Los Angeles Rams during the first quarter at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Atlanta Falcons @ Dallas Cowboys (-4.5) — 52.5 total

Moneylines: Falcons +175/Cowboys -205

This line has me shaking my head a little bit. Both of these teams lost — The Falcons lost at home to the Seahawks, the Cowboys lost on the road vs. the Rams — yet the line dropped from 7.0 to 4.5? This line is currently saying that the Cowboys are just 1.5-point better than the Falcons on a neutral field, which seems somewhat crazy to me.

Some of that line movement can probably be explained by the Cowboys injuries. Blake Jarwin is done for the season after tearing his ACL, while Leighton Vander Esch is out for at least six weeks with a broken collarbone. That said, we’re talking about a TE and a MLB here, and I’m not even sure Jarwin is a particularly good player. That much line movement for two players feels off.

The loss of Vander Esch will definitely hurt — particularly since Sean Lee is still out of the lineup — but the Cowboys should be able to make up for it with their front four. No one knew what kind of production they would get from Aldon Smith, but he was an absolute force in their first game. He finished with 11 tackles and 1.0 sacks, and he’ll combine with DeMarcus Lawrence and Everson Griffen to give the Cowboys an elite trio of pass rushers.

On the other side, the Falcons did nothing to impress me. Sure, Matt Ryan finished with 450 passing yards, but most of those yards came with the Falcons playing catchup in the second half. They were trailing vs. the Seahawks 31-12 before ultimately making the final score a bit more competitive during garbage time.

Even though I don’t think this line makes much sense, the public clearly doesn’t agree with me. Both of these teams are receiving 50% of the spread bets, although the Cowboys have the clear edge in spread money at 68%.

I thought the Cowboys were one of the better teams in the NFC heading into the season, and I’m certainly not ready to change my mind after just one week. I also had the Rams as legit sleepers in the NFC — I highlighted their odds in my NFL Futures piece — I don’t think losing a close game on the road to them is all that disappointing.

Saturday Update: The sharps appear to be on the Falcons, which makes very little sense to me. They’re currently receiving 77% of the betting dollars, which has caused this spread to drop from 4.5 to 3.5. I’m still sticking with the Cowboys, but I never feel comfortable going against the sharps. I’m ok with being bullish on the Cowboys compared to the pros.

The Pick: Cowboys -4.5

San Francisco 49ers (-7) @ New York Jets — 42.5 total

Moneylines: 49ers -305/Jets +252

The Jets are the second team to fit the “Week 1 overreactions” trend. They’re currently receiving just 20% of the spread bets, which is one of the lower marks on the slate.

They were absolutely demolished by the Bills in Week 1. They allowed 404 yards on defense and racked up just 254 yards on offense, which is a massive differential. The Jets fell behind 21-0 in the first half, and they simply don’t have the type of offense that allows them to overcome an early deficit. With that in mind, it’s not surprising that no one wants anything to do with the Jets at the moment.

That has caused this spread to jump from 6.0 to 7.0 despite the fact that the 49ers weren’t particularly impressive in their own right in Week 1. They lost outright as seven-point favorites vs. the Cardinals. The Cards may be improved this season — they certainly looked the part vs. the 49ers — but it was still a disappointing performance for last year’s NFC champions.

Additionally, the 49ers are dealing with a rash of injuries. They had just three healthy WRs in Week 1, and they were missing arguably their top three options at the position in Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and Jalen Hurd. Aiyuk may be able to return to the lineup this week, but George Kittle might be ruled out in his place. Kittle suffered a knee injury in Week 1 and did not practice on Wednesday.

If Kittle is out, the 49ers will be extremely devoid of playmakers. They did sign Mohamed Sanu earlier this week, but that’s like putting a bandaid on a bullet hole. Jimmy Garopolo is far from an elite QB, so he needs all the help he can get.

I’m not sure if I can actually bet on the Jets — they might be that bad — but I think they’re the correct side in this contest. This looks like a pass.

Saturday Update: Kittle has been ruled out for the 49ers, but it should be noted that the Jets are pretty banged up on offense as well. Le’Veon Bell and Jamison Crowder have both been ruled out, which don’t leave them with a ton of playmakers on the offensive side of the ball. This looks like a massive mismatch on paper, but I don’t really like laying this many points with a road team. I’m still passing, but I don’t blame you if you want to take a shot with the 49ers.

The Pick: Pass

The Line Movement NFL Show- Bets Against the Spread

Buffalo Bills (-6) @ Miami Dolphins — 41.0 total

Moneylines: Bills -237/Dolphins +200

The Dolphins are another team who are currently receiving less than 30% of the spread bets. They’re actually checking in with just 18%, which is tied for the second-lowest mark on the slate.

What makes the Dolphins a bit different than some of the other squads that fit this trend is that they’re receiving virtually no sharp action. Their 18% of the spread bets currently account for just 1% of the money wagered.

Unsurprisingly, this line has jumped quite a bit towards the Bills. They were listed as just 3.5-point favorites on the advance line, but that number currently sits at six. If the sportsbooks don’t receive any sharp action on the Dolphins over the next couple of days, expect this line to jump even higher.

The Bills were expected to be good this season, but I don’t think anyone expected them to be a great offensive team. That said, they showed some progress on that side of the ball vs. the Jets. They had the eighth-highest pass frequency in Week 1, including the seventh-highest pass frequency while the game was still within two scores. The Bills also posted a 59% success rate on those plays per Sharp Football, which is the fifth-best mark to start the season.

If they can show some progression in the passing game, they have the potential to be very dangerous this season.

I don’t want to make too much out of one matchup vs. the Jets — who have a dreadful secondary — but they do figure to be better after adding Stefon Diggs. He had a down year in 2019 for a very run-heavy Vikings squad, but he’s still one of the most talented receivers in the league. Pairing him with John Brown gives Josh Allen two targets who perfectly fit his skill set. Allen loves to throw the ball deep, and Diggs and Brown both have the ability to get behind opposing defenses.

On the other side, I’m not sure what the Dolphins’ plan is at the moment. Their supposed QB of the future in Tua Tagovialoa is healthy, yet they will roll out the corpse of Ryan Fitzpatrick for the second straight week. Fitzpatrick was terrible in Week 1, throwing three picks vs. the Patriots, and the Bills ranked sixth in pass defense DVOA in 2019.

Making matters worse, the Dolphins could be without DeVante Parker in this contest. He’s currently listed as questionable, and he emerged as one of the Dolphins’ most reliable skill-position players last season. His absence would hurt an offense that already figures to struggle.

I’m willing to do something in this spot I almost never do: back a team with massive public support. I’m also hopping on this line now just in case it rises to the key number of seven.

Saturday Update: Parker is looking like a game-time decision since he is still considered questionable. The Bills are still receiving huge support from the public and the sharps — they’re receiving at least 77% of the spread bets and dollars — but this number has actually dropped from 6.0 to 5.5.

The Pick: Bills -6

Minnesota Vikings @ Indianapolis Colts (-3) — 48.5 total

Moneylines: Vikings +132/Colts -154

The Colts are a very interesting team this week. I entered the year with pretty high expectations for them given their absolute cupcake of a schedule. Just look at how easy it is compared to the rest of the league based on preseason Vegas win totals (chart via Sharp Football):

They opened the year with a matchup vs. the Jaguars, which was supposed to be a layup. We know how that went — just ask all the people who took the Colts in their survivor pools — which has the general public questioning just how good this team actually is.

New QB Philip Rivers in particular is catching a lot of flack for his performance. He threw two picks vs. the Jags, and 17 of his 39 completions went to RBs. Overall, it resulted in an AYA of just 6.37.

As poor as those numbers are, he’s in a great bounce-back spot vs. the Vikings. They were absolutely shredded by the Packers in Week 1, particularly by No. 1 WR Devante Adams. The Colts don’t have anyone on their roster quite like Adams — not many teams do — but they still have T.Y. Hilton. The Vikings were also terrible vs. No. 1 WRs in 2019, ranking just 21st in pass defense DVOA vs. the position, and they struggled specifically vs. deep passes. With that in mind, Hilton should be more available to Rivers in this contest.

Some might be concerned about Marlon Mack going down with a season-ending Achilles injury, but that could actually work as a positive. Less Mack means more Jonathan Taylor, who was an absolutely elite prospect at the RB position. He finished in the 98th percentile in terms of 40 yard dash time, 99th percentile in terms of speed score, and 93rd percentile in terms of Dominator Rating (per Player Profiler). Getting Mack on the field is almost certainly a good thing, especially behind an offensive line as good as the Colts.

As for the Vikings, I’m not entirely sure what they’re doing offensively. First round draft pick Justin Jefferson played on less than 70% of offensive snaps despite the massive hole at WR without Diggs. Newly-paid Dalvin Cook saw just 11 more snaps and three more opportunities than backup RB Alexander Mattison. It’s hard to question Mike Zimmer — who is one hell of a coach — but his specialty is the defensive side of the ball.

I’m still deciding whether or not I’ll be siding with the Colts or passing on this spot. I definitely would’ve been interested if I could grab the opening number of -2.5, but things are much closer at -3.0. I will be monitoring this situation throughout the week.

The Pick: Colts -3

Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers (-6) — 49.5 total

Moneylines: Lions +210/Packers -247

The public teams just keep on rolling. Everyone loves the Packers all of a sudden after the demolition of the Vikings in Week 1. Aaron Rodgers had a vintage-Rodgers performance, racking up 364 yards, four TD passes, and a 10.09 AYA. That was the fifth-highest mark among all QBs.

However, this team had plenty of issues last season. They finished with 13 wins, but their Pythagorean win expectation had them at just 9.7 wins. That was one of the largest differentials between expected wins and actual wins in 2019.

The biggest reason for this differential was their record in close games. They went 8-1 in games decided by one score and 2-0 in games decided by a field goal or less. Teams are simply not supposed to post that kind of record in games that should theoretically be a coin flip.

The Packers are essentially the same team that they were last season. Their first two draft picks were on a backup QB and a running back who saw two touches in Week 1. Their only real addition offensively in free agency was on Devin Funchess, a mediocre WR that ultimately opted out. This team definitely still has it’s fair share of problems.

That said, they have the potential to be in a smash spot vs. the Lions.

Detroit has been absolutely decimated by injuries in their secondary. Two of their top three cornerbacks didn’t play in Week 1, including first round pick Jeff Okudah. Their only remaining cornerback of note is Desmond Trufant, who was absolutely abysmal in their first contest. He earned a PFF grade of just 40.0 in pass coverage, which was the 11th-worst mark out of 100 qualifiers at the position in Week 1.

If they’re shorthanded again, I have no idea how they’re going to stop Rodgers and Adams. I’m still not sold on Rodgers being back to his old ways, but he should be able to feed Adams just like he did in Week 1. Allan Lazard and Marquez Valdez-Scantling also don’t seem so bad when they’re matched up against fourth- and fifth-string players.

Finally, Rodgers has historically been at his best as a home favorite. He’s gone 49-29-3 against the spread in that situation, making Rodgers the second-most profitable QB as a home favorite since 2004.

I hate to sound like a broken record, but this is another injury situation I’ll be monitoring. If the Lions are playing shorthanded in their secondary again, I’ll be happy to lay the points with the Packers.

Saturday Update: Things are not looking great for the Lions secondary. Okudah might be able to make his NFL debut, but Trufant has already been ruled out. That means the best case scenario for the Lions is that just one of their top three corners will be active.

With that in mind, I’m ready to fire on the Packers. They are definitely a public team this week, but I just don’t see any scenario where Rodgers doesn’t shred the Lions.

Pick: Packers -6

New York Giants @ Chicago Bears (-5.5) — 42.0 total

Moneylines: Giants +200/Bears -242

There aren’t a lot of public underdogs this week, but the Giants are one of the few exceptions. They’re currently garnering 68% of the spread bets, and those bets account for a whopping 90% of the money wagered.

So what do these bettors like about the Giants? They had their moments during Monday Night Football vs. the Steelers, including a beautiful 41-yard touchdown pass from Daniel Jones to Darius Slayton, but they had their fair share of negatives as well.

The biggest one was their offensive line. They were beyond bad in Week 1, averaging -0.15 adjusted line yards in that contest. That was the worst mark in the league by a comical margin: The second-worst mark belonged to the Bills at +2.04.

When they went to the air, Jones was under relentless pressure from the Steelers. They finished with three sacks, and that number could’ve been worse if not for Jones’ athleticism.

The Steelers have an elite pass rush — they led the league in sacks last season — so it’s possible that the Giants could improve in that department as the season progresses. That said, this matchup vs. the Bears poses another massive challenge.

It starts with Khalil Mack, who needs no introduction. They also brought in Robert Quinn during the offseason, who finished with 11.5 sacks for the Cowboys in 2019. That combination gives the pair an awesome pair of book-end pass rushers.

I don’t have a great feel for this game, but I’m definitely not bullish on the Giants in this situation. This is a pass for me.

Saturday Update: I still have zero interest in this game. The line has stayed stagnant at 5.5 points, and I have no real feel for either of these squads at the moment. There are 12 other games to choose from Sunday afternoon, so I’m just going to leave this one alone.

The Pick: Pass

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans (-9) — 42.0 total

Moneylines: Jaguars +310/Titans -382

We’ve arrived at yet another team that is receiving less than 30% of the spread bets, but it’s probably not the team that you think. Normally the big favorite is the public team, but not in this instance. Everyone apparently has #MinshewMania because 82% of the spread bets have landed on the Jaguars. They covered as large underdogs last week vs. the Colts, and apparently the public believes they can do it again.

I’m not so optimistic.

The Colts struggled in Week 1, particularly on the defensive side of the ball, which allowed Minshew to post some outstanding numbers. In fact, Minshew actually became the first QB in league history to throw just one incomplete pass and at least three touchdowns in the same game:

Minshew was solid as a rookie, but I don’t think anyone believed he had that kind of performance in his range of outcomes. I don’t think I’m going out on a limb to suggest he’s due from regression.

The Titans defense wasn’t great last year vs. the pass, but they did make some key additions during the offseason. They started by signing Vic Beasley, and they doubled-down on improving their pass rush by adding Jadaveon Clowney just before the start of the season. The Colts still managed to sack Minshew four times despite ultimately losing the game, so the Titans should be able to get some pressure in this contest.

The Titans should also have plenty of success on the offensive side of the ball. The Jaguars lost a ton of defensive contributors since going to the AFC playoffs two years ago. Jalen Ramsey, A.J. Bouye, Calais Campbell, and Yannick Ngakowe have all been either traded or allowed to leave in free agency.

They struggled to stop the Titans run game even when they had all those guys in the lineup. Derrick Henry has absolutely bludgeoned the Jags over the past two seasons, averaging nearly 125 rushing yards and 1.75 rushing TDs over four games.

My only concern with the Titans is the absence of Adoree Jackson. He’s their top corner — he had a coverage grade of 75.2 according to PFF last season — and the Jaguars do have a solid top WR in D.J. Chark.

Still, the line movement in this contest makes the Titans an appealing target. They opened as 11 point favorites on the advance point spread, but the line dropped to nine given the combination of the Jaguars’ win in Week 1 and all the public action. The Titans also played much better than the final score of their Week 1 game suggested, so I think the public is undervaluing them at the moment.

Saturday Update: I clearly did not get the best of this number, which doesn’t make me feel great. The Titans have dropped to just -7.5, but ultimately there isn’t a huge difference between 7.5 and 9.

The public and sharps alike continue to pounce on the Jaguars, who are currently receiving 99% of the spread betting dollars. That is absolutely crazy! I don’t think this line will get to seven, but if it does, I’m happy to fire again on the Titans. This continues to look like a massive mismatch, even with A.J. Brown out of the lineup for Tennessee.

The Pick: Titans -9

Washington Football Team @ Arizona Cardinals (-6.5) — 47.5 total

Moneylines: Washington +240/Cardinals -286

This showdown features two of the biggest surprises from Week 1.

On one hand we have the Cardinals, who secured arguably the most impressive win of the week vs. the 49ers. Not only that, they actually looked like they deserved to win the game. The 49ers are clearly banged up at the moment, but the Cardinals outgained them 404 yards to 366 yards. Kyle Murray peppered the newly acquired DeAndre Hopkins with targets, and he also chipped in a career-high 91 yards on the ground.

Washington rode a dominant performance from their defensive line to win outright as 5.5-point underdogs vs. the Eagles. They fell into an early 17-0 hole but scored 27 unanswered points to secure the victory.

Dwayne Haskins was far from dominant, but he showed some improvement as a game manager. His AYA of 6.4 from that contest is nothing to write home about, but it’s still an upgrade over his mark of 5.9 as a rookie.

So which team is for real? I think it’s the Cardinals and it’s not particularly close.

Washington has the potential to have a dominant defensive line, but it’s still way too early to draw that conclusion. Manhandling a shorthanded Eagles’ offensive line isn’t all that impressive, so we’ll see if they can replicate that performance moving forward.

This spread suggests that the Cardinals are just 3.5 points better than Washington on a neutral field. I don’t agree with that sentiment. The Cardinals are legitimate sleepers to make the playoffs, while Washington entered the season with one of the lowest Vegas win totals in the league. I’m grabbing this line now before it gets to the key number of seven.

Saturday Update: Even though I clearly missed the mark on the Titans, I’m happy to have gotten the best of the number here. This line has now moved to 7.0, and the difference between 6.5 and 7.0 is massive. Seven is one of the most common scoring differentials in NFL games, so the difference between 6.5 and 7.0 can mean the difference between a push and a win. I’m very happy with my position in this contest for all the reasons I previously mentioned.

The Pick: Cardinals -6.5

Watson Running
Dec 15, 2019; Nashville, TN, USA; Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson (4) scrambles out of the pocket during the first half against the Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

Baltimore Ravens (-7) @ Houston Texans — 51.5 total

Moneylines: Ravens -327/Texans +272

You have to feel bad for the Texans. After opening the season with the Chiefs, they have to take on the Ravens in Week 2. Those are widely considered the two best teams in football, so you couldn’t ask for a tougher schedule to start the year.

Meanwhile, the Ravens are coming off an absolutely drubbing vs. the Browns in Week 1. They looked every bit as dominant as they did last season, and perhaps more impressively, they did it without Lamar Jackson having to run the ball all that often. He dominated instead with his arm, averaging a ridiculous AYA of 13.4. If Jackson can take some strides as a passer — and there’s no reason not to expect that in his second full year as a starter — this team could be downright scary.

I absolutely love the Ravens this season, but I do think this is one of their trickier spots of the year. There are a lot of factors working against them in this contest.

For starters, the Texans have the rest advantage after opening up on Thursday night. Teams who have been off for at least 10 days have posted a record of 368-348-19 against the spread since 2004 when facing a team on normal rest. That’s not a huge edge — it results in a ROI of just +0.6% — but it’s an edge nonetheless.

Bill O’Brien is not a good coach, but he is someone who has historically thrived with a rest advantage. He’s gone 7-2 against the spread, which makes him the fourth-most profitable coach in that situation.

Secondly, betting on great quarterbacks as underdogs in typically a solid strategy, and DeShaun Watson fits that description. He’s gone 12-6 against the spread as an underdog throughout his career. He didn’t come through in that situation vs. the Chiefs, but being this large of an underdog leaves the door open for a backdoor cover even if the Texans aren’t competitive.

Finally, this is a clear lookahead spot for the Ravens. They’re taking on the Chiefs in Week 3 in one of the most anticipated games of the regular season. The Chiefs were just one of two teams to beat Jackson during the 2019 regular season, so I would expect him to be extremely focused on avenging that loss.

There will be plenty of opportunities to buy the Ravens this season — I will probably be on them next week — so I’m going to exercise some patience and pass on this contest.

Saturday Update: Baltimore is up to -7.5, and I still think they’re the correct side here. That said, I’m still going to pass based on all the trends working in the Texans’ favor.

The Pick: Pass

Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5) @ Los Angeles Chargers — 47.5 total

Moneylines: Chiefs -387/Chargers +310

The Chiefs obviously have the same lookahead spot as the Ravens, but there’s a lot more to like about them in Week 2. Their matchup vs. the Chargers is a lot more friendly than the Ravens’ matchup vs. the Texans, and the Chiefs have the rest advantage instead of the disadvantage. Andy Ried is one of the best coaches in football, so giving him extra time to prepare usually leads to success. He’s posted a mark of 14-11 against the spread with the rest advantage vs. his opposition since 2004 during the regular season.

The Chargers were also very disappointing in their Week 1 contest vs. the Bengals. They were able to squeak out a 16-13 win, but they needed an offensive pass interference call and a missed chip shot FG in order to get it done.

Tyrod Taylor in particular looked pretty pedestrian vs. a Bengals’ defense that was expected to struggle this season. He completed just 16 of 30 passes for 208 yards. Curiously, he only targeted Austin Ekeler once, who is one of the best receiving backs in football. The Chargers paid him during the offseason, so it doesn’t make a lot of sense not to utilize him.

The Chargers are receiving just 11% of the public bets at the moment — which qualifies them for the trend I highlighted at the beginning of the piece — but this just seems like such a massive mismatch. That said, the fact that this line increased from 6.5 to 8.5 does scare me a bit. I’m still debating whether or not I’m actually going to bet on the Chiefs, but there is no situation where I’m betting against them.

This could ultimately come down to the injury report. The Chargers currently have two offensive lineman and Joey Bosa listed as questionable, and it would be hard to pass up on the Chiefs if any of those players are ruled out.

Saturday Update: The Chargers appear to be pretty close to full strength heading into this contest, although they did place starting center Mike Pouncey on the IR. That said, the Chargers didn’t have Pouncey in Week 1, so there are no new injuries to exploit with the Chiefs.

This line is holding strong at KC -8.5, and there doesn’t appear to be a ton of sharp action on LA to balance out the overwhelming public action on KC. I already have wagers on eight contests, so I’m going to sit this one out.

The Pick: Pass