Dieter’s Dive NFL Week 2: Overreaction theater

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Jimmy G
Feb 2, 2020; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo before Super Bowl LIV against the Kansas City Chiefs at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

There’s never been an NFL Week 1 that wasn’t followed with overreactions. 

And there’s never been a Week 1 quite like 2020’s. 

The preseason schedule was canceled, practices were truncated, tackling was a myth, but the takes are still flying heading into Week 2 — and a lot of people seem interested in putting their money where their mouth is as well. 

The overreactions are aplenty, so we’re going to fade the public. Hard. 

There are no answers after Week 1. Nothing is permanent. Yet according to ESPN’s David Purdum, there’s overwhelming consensus on a few favorites for Week 2 at the FanDuel sportsbook. 

We’re talking 98 percent of money on the Chiefs (-8.5) at the Chargers. Ninety-five percent on the 49ers (-7) at the Jets. Ninety-three percent on Ravens (-7) at Texans. Ninety-two percent on Bills (-6) at the Dolphins. Eighty-eight percent on Packers (-6) hosting the Lions. 

Who’s ready to bet some ‘dogs? 

Correction: Who’s ready to bet some home ‘dogs?

Because not only are those teams are just favorites for Sunday. No, they’re solid teams all around. 

The reason we’re fading is that their success is being deemed inevitable. 

You’d think we’d have learned at least one lesson from 2020…

Let’s go game-by-game:

Chiefs at Chargers

I’m not sold on the Chargers’ offense, but that said, this game might need to be bet on principle. The line has already moved two points and if it goes to a nine-point difference in the coming days, I’m going to take it. Home-field advantage might be dead — and it might have never applied to the Chargers in Los Angeles — but that’s nearly a field goal of free points the book is giving you compared to when this line first hit the board. In a league where every point matters, you have to take that. You just have to. Books think pretty hard and long about those initial lines, folks. 

Bills at Dolphins

The Bills are spotting the Dolphins six — up two-and-a-half points since opening. When did Buffalo become a juggernaut? Is beating the Jets worth re-evaluating everything? Are the Dolphins suddenly a terrible team because they couldn’t stop Cam Newton running his college offense for the first time in a decade? The public’s overreactions to “data” that will prove to be inconsequential at the end of the season is handing you free money. Take it. 

The Line Movement NFL Show. Bets Against The Spread

Lions at Packers

Oh, and we’re really buying the Packers? The Lions aren’t great, I get that — they still have Matt Patricia as their head coach — but they would have won last week against the Bears if only D’Andre Swift held onto that a game-winning touchdown pass.  

Feel free to think that Green Bay is some sort of juggernaut. Think Aaron Rodgers is back to being one of the best quarterbacks in the league. I’m not keen to override last year’s data, where Rodgers seemed far more concerned about his quarterback rating than actually pushing the ball downfield and Green Bay never led the Lions for a second in either of their games last year (Green Bay still won both contests.)

There’s a reason this line hasn’t moved despite the lopsided spread money. The books are providing you free advice. And while there’s less value to be found — inherently — sometimes it feels good to win with simple logic. 

Because instead of thinking that the Packers — the worst 13-3 team in the history of football — have figured it all out, isn’t it more likely that the Vikings laid an egg last week after a strange offseason? 

Sometimes the best answers are the simplest. 

49ers at Jets

Perhaps the 49ers just laid an egg, too. Perhaps the Jets are so bad that they don’t deserve to ever be bet on. Those arguments hold sway. Apparently 95 percent of the money going to the 49ers doesn’t. This line has only moved one point. The books are saying that San Francisco’s Week 1 woes shouldn’t be overlooked. Or maybe they’re just Frank Gore fans. Even so, you might want to heed their advice. 

And while I think that Baltimore is an outstanding team — perhaps the best team in the NFL. But are they as explosive as the Chiefs? I don’t think so. Do you feel comfortable spotting Deshaun Watson a touchdown? Feel free to question a lot about Houston, but I don’t include the quarterback in that. 

Will all of these ‘dog bets hit? Of course not. But the same logic goes the other way, too. 

And if this all looks foolish in a week, don’t worry about it — there will be a new set of overreactions that will look silly in a few months. The NFL season isn’t real until October folks. In the meantime, pick up every free point and dollar you can.