New Orleans Saints -169 (-3.5) vs. Green Bay Packers +135 (+3.5): Total 52.5
Green Bay has looked dominant to begin the year. The Pack throttled the Lions last week 42-21 and, while destroying the Lions isn’t a huge accomplishment on its own, when you add in the 43-points they dropped on a supposedly solid Vikings squad in Week 1, you get a pretty impressive start to 2020. The Packers entered the year as second-favorites to Minnesota in the NFC North outright betting market so the dominant Week 1 win, coupled with another trouncing of a weaker division opponent, makes them hard to go against as one of the favorites in the NFC futures odds at the moment.Â
The Saints also started with an impressive Week 1 win over Tampa Bay, beating the Tom Brady led Bucs 34-23. A dose of reality was handed to New Orleans in Week 2 though, when they lost 34-24 to the Raiders. QB Drew Brees’ regression as a downfield passer has been an area of concern lately though as the now 41-year-old QB has only completed just one pass of more than 20-yards through the air through two games.
The Saints issues on offense definitely got more serious when WR Michael Thomas suffered a high-ankle sprain in their Week 1 win. The Saints only rank out 17th in yards per play thus far and definitely lose an element of explosiveness without him and his 9.3 yards per target–which was eighth-best last year among receivers. The good news for New Orleans is that while Thomas has already been ruled out for this week’s game against the Packers, Green Bay’s heavily targeted WR1 is also unlikely to play.
Davante Adams will likely be a game-time decision for Green Bay but his coach has put his status as “doubtfulâ€. The Packers lead the league in yards per play through two weeks and weren’t slowed much by Adams injury in Week 2. Aaron Jones leads the league in ypc stats through two weeks but could certainly be up against more stacked boxes here without Adams to draw attention. The only other big injuries to key in on for this game are Packers DT Kenny Clark and Saints DE Marcus Davenport, who are both questionable to suit up at the moment.Â
From a line perspective, the Saints sit as -3.5 homes favorites, as of writing. The line did open at Saints -3 but there has been more bets on the Packers side thus far. The status of Adams also likely has something to do with the move towards New Orleans. From an Against the Spread perspective, Green Bay has been quite good in this spot under Matt LaFleur, going 4-2 ATS since the beginning of 2019 as away underdogs. New Orleans is known as a dominant home team but are only 7-11 ATS as home favorites since the beginning of 2018. The recent betting trends here favour the Packers in the ATS department.Â
For the total, the O/U 52.5 mark here represents the fourth-largest of the Week 3 slate. Both teams have smashed this number to the over side in both of their first two games, but these are two hobbled offenses going up against two of the more solid defenses in the conference. The Saints lack of big plays on offense thus far is a definite concern for people considering the over.Â
Key injuries
GREEN BAY
- C Corey Linsley: Thumb – Questionable
- WR Davante Adams: Hamstring – Doubtful
- T Billy Turner: Knee – Questionable
- LB Randy Ramsey: Groin – Questionable
- TE Josiah Deguara: Ankle – Questionable
- DT Kenny Clark: Groin – Questionable
NEW ORLEANS
- WR Michael Thomas: Ankle – Out
- DE Marcus Davenport: Elbow – Questionable
- LB Chase Hansen: Hip – Questionable
Packers offense vs Saints defense
The Packers are likely to be without Davnate Adams on offense which would leave Allen Lazard and Marquez Valdes-Scantling up against a group of solid corners. Janoris Jenkins has rated out as the fifth-best cornerback, overall, thus far in 2020, according to Pro Football Focus, and Marshawn Lattimore is capable of shutting down anyone on his best day. It’ll be a tough matchup for whoever the Packers put on the outside here. Much like the dinosaurs in Jurassic Park though, QB Aaron Rodgers seems to “find a way†in these situations and he’s started off 2020 hot with a 117.5 QB rating–sixth-best in the league–and an 8.2 yards per completion.Â
Part of the reason for Rodgers’ hot start has been the balance they’ve achieved with Aaron Jones. Jones is actually the Packers second-leading receiver coming into this game–with 14 receptions–but he’ll have his toughest match-up to date, as the Saints are again projecting as one of the elite rush defenses in the league. The Saints did cede two TDs to the RB position last week and Green Bay’s Offensive Line does rank first in run blocking efficiency via Football Outsiders. Despite the tough matchup, expect a heavy dose of Jones here and an interesting battle to develop in the trenches.Â
With Adams out you could also see the TE position get more involved for Green Bay. Robert Tonyan was effective last week catching a TD on his only red zone target. Regardless of who the Packers turn to in the pass game though, the bottom line here is simple: these are two elite units and whoever can win the battle at the line of scrimmage seems likely to win the day for their respective team. The Packers may be without Adams but, given how well their offensive line and run game has been working, they really should really be able to battle to at least a standstill here. Expect Rodgers and Jones to do enough to keep this game close and give them a shot to win at the end.
Saints offense vs Packers defense
The Saints only rank out 17th in yards per play this year and haven’t had a wide receiver catch more than 5-passes in a game this year. The offense has been flowing directly through Alvin Kamara–who touched the ball 21 times last week–thus far and there’s zero reason to expect this to change anytime soon–or at least until Michael Thomas returns.
Not to beat a dead horse, but the Saints completely lack an explosive element to their passing game right now. Drew Brees is averaging just 6.9 yards per attempt at the moment, good for just 22nd in the league. He’ll likely need new addition Emmanuel Sanders to step up and act as a true number one if they’re going to win out here. Sanders has been underwhelming thus far in 2020 turning eight targets into just four catches for 33-yards.
The Packers defense would definitely benefit from getting Kenny Clark back in the lineup. They haven’t been great against the run thus far, allowing 5.2 ypc against through two weeks and have a tough matchup against Alvin Kamara who piled up 79-yards on the ground last week on just 13-carries. Kamara will likely suffer the same fate that Jones does on the other side of this game in that Green Bay seems likely to stack the line of scrimmage and dare Drew Brees to beat them deep.
Green Bay cornerback Jaire Alexander has been excellent in 2020 thus far and has the highest grade of any CB on Pro Football Focus at the moment. Leaving him to defend against Sanders or deep threat Tre’Quan Smith, who led the Saints in receiving last week, would be a good situation for Green Bay if it meant they could clamp down on Kamara’s explosiveness. If the Packers get Clark back here, they could potentially make life difficult on the Saints best offensive player and force one of the Saints peripheral threats to come up with a career game to beat them.
Game and prop bets
Despite being one of the more popular teams with bettors, Green Bay still is not getting any respect from a line perspective, week-to-week. They were road underdogs Week 1 against Minnesota and remain in that same position here. The loss of Davante Adams hurts, but the Packers have a clear edge at QB (sorry Drew Brees, but father time never loses) and have an offense that proved last year that it can win games without its top target in the lineup. Green Bay went 4-0 without Adams last season, taking huge road wins in Kansas City and Dallas.
The trends also say to fade the Saints here. While they don’t lose much as home favorites, their record against the spread is a different story. The extra 0.5 points here feels huge as four of the Saints’ last eight regular-season home games have finished within a 3-point margin. New Orleans isn’t the same team it was at the Superdome in the early 2010’s and are without their best chain mover in Thomas. Expect a close game between two solid NFC opponents with the lean for me going to the Packers on the spread.Â
Bet: Packers +3.5 (-118)
As for the total, it’s another one I’d rather stay away from. The line has moved up to 52.5 from 51.5 but with both top WRs out it does feel like a shift in favour of the defenses. Green Bay’s offense has been so explosive that even without Adams they’re not a team I’d like to target with the under right now.
Player prop bets:
Jared Cook over 3.5 receptions
Cook has had at least 5-targets in each of the first two games, catching five receptions in the first game against the Bucs. The TE isn’t playing every snap but he is acting as the de facto number one WR for the Saints. He leads any WR/TE on the team with 12-targets through two games which is four more than second-place. With Green Bay sporting a solid outside corner in Jaire Alexander, expect New Orleans to try and stretch the field by feeding Cook over the middle as much as possible.
Drew Brees longest pass completion under 38.5 yards
Brees has only had one pass this year that has traveled over 20+-yards in the air and been caught–a 46-yard catch and run (38-yards through the air) to Jared Cook in Week 1. This is more of a bet against Brees and his failing arm strength than anything and the fact that the Packers will be more mindful of clamping down on solid after-the-catch receivers like Cook and Kamara with Michael Thomas out.
