What’s next for the Chicago Blackhawks?

0
93
Patrick Kane in red
Jan 19, 2020; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Blackhawks right wing Patrick Kane (88) during the second period against the Winnipeg Jets at the United Center. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports

If you bet on the Chicago Blackhawks beating the Edmonton Oilers in the qualification round, you better have bet big because that would have been quite the payout.

The victory capped off an interesting season, to say the least. The Blackhawks weren’t projected to make the post-season but the expanded 24-team format allowed them one last chance to prove what they were worth. The Hawks sent the Oilers packing in four games before reality hit hard against the Vegas Golden Knights in the first official playoff round. Still, Chicago managed to knock off the No. 5 seed as a lowly No. 12, so there was nothing to be ashamed of.

But don’t let the underdog victory fool you – there’s still a ton of work to be done.

Chicago currently has a little over $73.5 million tied to 17 players, leaving them $7.83 million in cap space to fill at least three roster spots. For a team that’s far off from Stanley Cup contention, it’s not good to be so close to the cap, especially after pending RFA Dominik Kubalik hit 30 goals as a rookie. Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, Alex DeBrincat, Kirby Dach, and (likely) Duncan Keith aren’t going anywhere. Adam Boqvist has appeared in trade rumors, but the return would have to be steep to move on from the young defender. Otherwise, the Blackhawks have a large crop that can be made available at the right price to put them back into contention once more.

This is a franchise that had a real winning culture from 2010-15 but, after years of success, teams inevitably must enter a recovery period. The Hawks are drafting later than they would have liked at No. 17, so they should land a prospect with middle-six potential a few years from now. They will be busy this summer and, while a playoff run next year may remain unrealistic, the pieces are still there to build around for the near future.

But it all starts with a few key aspects:

Kubalik and Strome’s RFA contracts

What’s the best thing that can happen when you sign a low-risk, low-cost 24-year-old out of Switzerland? Watch him become a true threat to win the Calder Trophy! In scoring 30 goals this past season, Kubalik exceeded all expectations. But now he’s a pending RF, and the Hawks need to figure out if he’s truly the real deal or someone who just benefited from playing alongside Toews for the season.

Here’s the problem: while a 30-goal secondary scorer is a huge addition to the Blackhawks, is it sustainable? A perfect comparable is Boone Jenner from Columbus. Jenner had an identical stat line when he was 24, albeit with 14 more games played and in the third season of his career. Jenner signed a two-year deal worth $2.95 million and, while he has become a good utility player in the meantime, he hasn’t hit 20 goals or 40 points since. 

Kubalik is seen as more of a goal-scorer than Jenner, but it’s still a small sample size. Kubalik (23) had nearly double the goals that Denis Gurianov did at 5-on-5 (12) among rookie scorers, so it’s not like he’s a power-play specialist or anything either. The going rate for 50-point producers is around $5 million, with Evolving-Hockey predicting a cap hit of $4.75 million on a three-year term. If Kubalik can still produce close to a 30-goal clip, that’s more than a fair rate. 

Now, what about Dylan Strome? He emerged as one of the team’s top young guns last year after recording 51 points in 58 games, following an unsuccessful three-year stint in Arizona. But Strome’s numbers dipped this season with just 38 points in 58 games, leaving some to wonder what his results will look like in the future. Strome should be Chicago’s third-line center next season, and Kirby Dach’s emergence as a prospect definitely makes Strome expendable, but not necessarily someone the Hawks would want to move. You could do so much worse than Strome on your third line, especially if he sticks with Alex DeBrincat in the long-term. 

A realistic performance total would be about 40-45 points going forward so, if the Hawks can get Strome for around $3.5 million for 2-3 years, it would be a huge benefit for all parties. Strome does offer some nice trade value for a team that’s willing to offer more to get an impact player on a (projected) cheap pact, but is it worth it? DeBrincat’s best hockey has been played alongside Strome – a fantastic play-maker – and Dach still needs time to adjust as a sophomore next season. If I’m the Hawks, I retain Strome. You can’t have enough two-way centers in the system and he won’t cost an arm and a leg to keep around.

Move on from expensive veterans

(Editors note: Prior to publishing this article the Chicago Blackhawks traded Dylan Sikura to The Vegas Golden Knights for forward Brandon Pirri)

We saw it with the Los Angeles Kings and now we’re seeing it with Chicago: a glut of expensive deals with veterans well past their prime or facing injury concerns. Ideally, the Hawks would find a suitor for Brent Seabrook and his $6.87-million hit each of the next four years, but who wants a slow-moving defenseman coming off an injury-shortened 32-game campaign? Seabrook is far from the player he was during Chicago’s prime, so the best call is to leave him on the long-term injured reserve as long as possible. If that’s the case, it’s obviously a sad ending to a fantastic career by a fan favorite, but that’s business.

Andrew Shaw returned to the Blackhawks last season but skated in just 26 games before a concussion took him out of play for the rest of the year. The understanding is that Shaw will return to the lineup next season, although his $3.9-million cap hit until the end of 2021-22 is worth keeping an eye on. 

So where do the Hawks go from there? Defenseman Olli Maatta ($4.08 million) and forward Zack Smith ($3.25 million) are targets for buyouts after acting as depth options this season. Maata had a nice resurgence in the playoffs but it’s hard to think the Blackhawks will be mightily swayed after he failed to live up to expectations during the regular season. Adam Boqvist, Ian Mitchell, Lucas Carlsson, and Nicolas Beaudin are all candidates to make the team full-time in 2020-21, and they’ll all come at a much cheaper cost. For Smith, he had only four goals and 11 points in 50 games – one more point than Shaw in twice the games – while averaging just 11:47 per game in ice time. A fourth-liner shouldn’t make $3.25 million, so Smith is someone the Hawks will definitely look to ship out at some point.

The most interesting name, though, may be Brandon Saad, who has one year left on his deal worth $6 million but is coming off a rough 33-point campaign hampered by injuries. Saad couldn’t find the same performance that made him so effective in Columbus from 2015-17 and, while his production in accordance to his salary isn’t pretty, he could be a nice addition for a contending team needing extra scoring depth for a season. The Hawks could still keep him around as a useful middle-six option, but it might not take too much to pique GM Stan Bowman’s interest.

Goaltending stability

Ideally, the Blackhawks wouldn’t have had to ship out Robin Lehner at the 2020 trade deadline, instead keeping him in the long-term equation. Pending UFA Corey Crawford still has some good hockey left in him but, at 36, he’s not going to win another Stanley Cup in Chicago. Could he move this off-season to a contender, where he can stabilize the backup situation and get another shot at the Cup? Absolutely, but the Hawks can’t move on with some combination of Malcolm Subban, Collin Delia, and Kevin Lankinen making up the team’s duo in the crease.

The Blackhawks don’t have a goaltender in the system that’s trending toward the No. 1 spot and it’s unlikely they’ll get to select the highly touted Yaroslav Askarov at No. 17. If they want to force an upgrade in the crease, they’ll likely have to go the trade route. Matt Murray would be a great pickup out of Pittsburgh. He’s a pending RFA and it looks like the Penguins could elect to go with Tristan Jarry for the near future. If Murray is available, the Blackhawks could help address Pittsburgh’s need for scoring depth with Alexander Nylander, Brandon Saad, or Dylan Strome.

What about Marc-Andre Fleury out of Vegas? Lehner has seemingly stolen the starting job there – assuming he’ll sign this off-season – and Fleury is too good to be relegated to the backup position. Fleury is 35 and holds a $7-million cap hit for the next two seasons, so the Golden Knights would need to retain a bit of the salary to make it fit in Chicago. But if the Hawks are looking for a proven goaltender to fill the void short-term, he’s someone that would be attractive at the right price.

If Crawford expresses interest in returning next season, the Hawks should make a solid effort to bring him back. If the Hawks believe Delia is the future of the franchise, Crawford could serve as a mentor for the youngster while still maintaining the lion’s share of the starts. I can’t see Crawford staying for more than a year or two, but it would at least buy the team some more time to figure out if Delia is the answer, or if Bowman needs to go elsewhere to find a permanent solution.