There were always going to be problems with the NFL during the COVID pandemic, and they started to rear their ugly head in Week 4. The Titans had a full-scale outbreak, which caused their game vs. the Steelers to be rescheduled. The Patriots and Chiefs also had positive tests, which caused their game to be moved to Monday Night. The Saints also had a player test positive, but that ultimately turned out to be a “false positiveâ€.
Sadly, it looks like things are going to be similar for Week 5. The Titans have been unable to reopen their facility, with two additional players testing positive on Wednesday. They need three straight days of negative testing in order to return to their facility, so their Week 5 game vs. the Bills is in serious jeopardy.
The Patriots also had another positive test in Stephon Gilmore. He played in their Week 4 contest vs. the Chiefs, and it remains to be seen if he infected any other players on either team. He was obviously in close contact with a lot of players during that contest, so the ramifications could be massive:
Unfortunately, we’ll just have to wait and see how this all plays out.
On a positive note, Week 4 was my best week of the year from a betting perspective. I went 6-3-1 including Monday Night Football player prop bets. Of course, my week wasn’t nearly as good as some of my colleagues’:
Week 4 was also a great reminder of why getting the best number is so valuable in NFL betting. Two bets that I liked last week were the Ravens vs. Washington and the Chargers vs. the Buccaneers. Those lines opened up at Ravens -13 and Chargers +7.5, and if you grabbed those bets at those numbers you were rewarded with two winners. If you waited to place your bets until Sunday, you ultimately ended up with Ravens -14.5 and Chargers +6.5, aka two losers. Not only did you get solid closing line value with those two teams if you bet them early in the week, but you also swung two losing bets into two winners.
With that in mind, let’s look ahead to the Week 5 main slate and try to identify some betting value.
Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons (-2) — 54.0 total
Moneylines: Panthers +100/Falcons -118
This game has already seen some pretty drastic line movement. The Falcons were initially listed as 3.5-point favorites, but the sharps immediately gobbled that line up. That has pushed this line to 2.0 in some places and 1.0 in others. The public and sharps alike seem to like the Panthers this week — they’re currently garnering 62% of the spread bets and 84% of the spread money — so it wouldn’t be shocking to see this line move even more before kickoff.
With that in mind, I’m locking in the Panthers +2 while I still have the opportunity. I wish I could’ve grabbed this line at 3.5, but I still think getting them at +2 gives us a nice opportunity to ensure some closing line value. I think the Panthers deserve to be favored in this contest, so I’m happy to grab them at anything better than even money.
The Falcons have been nothing short of a disaster to start the season. They rank just 27th in Football Outsiders’ in overall DVOA, and they’ve lost each of their first four contests. They probably don’t deserve to be 0-4 — they blew big leads vs. the Cowboys and Bears — but the Falcons have made a habit of losing games that they shouldn’t. Until they get rid of Dan Quinn, there’s no reason to expect anything to change in that department.
Additionally, they might struggle to put up points given their current injury situation. Julio Jones was forced to leave their last game early, and he didn’t practice on Wednesday. He doesn’t have an official injury designation yet, but it seems unlikely that he’ll suit up vs. the Panthers.
The Falcons are getting a bit healthier on the defensive side of the ball, but that may not matter vs. the Panthers. Their offense has quietly been excellent to start the year, even after losing Christian McCaffrey to an injury. Mike Davis has been able to do his best McCaffrey impersonation, averaging seven receptions and more than 90 yards from scrimmage over his past three games. D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson also give Teddy Bridgewater an excellent 1-2 punch at the WR position.
The Panthers sit at just 2-2 at the moment, but they seem pretty undervalued in my opinion. They thoroughly dominated the Cardinals last week, outgaining them 444 yards to 262, and they currently rank 19th in overall DVOA and 14th in offensive DVOA. They’re not one of the best teams in the league by any stretch of the imagination, but they’re definitely good enough to beat a shorthanded Falcons’ squad.
The Pick: Panthers +2
Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs (-13) — 56.5 total
Moneylines: Raiders +534/Chiefs -750
This game has come off the board at most sportsbooks, but you can still find it at certain locations. There is obviously a lot of uncertainty surrounding this contest after the Chiefs came in close contact with Gilmore last week.
It’s hard to break this game down without knowing who — if anyone — will test positive. Patrick Mahomes testing positive would have massive implications on the spread, but other players would have no impact at all.
There are much more important things going on in the world right now, so I don’t blame you if you don’t want to think about the impact of this pandemic on something as silly as a football game. Still, part of being a successful handicapper is looking at all the angles on each game, and this is no exception.
With that in mind, I’m tentatively going to lock in the Raiders at +13. The last thing I want to do at the moment is actively bet against Mahomes, who looks like a complete buzzsaw at the moment, but who knows if Mahomes will even be in there at this point?
Quite simply, this line just seems as high as it will get. If a few key starters test positive, this ticket will have some value if this game actually plays. If no one tests positive — and I really do hope that’s the case — we can always buy back in on the Chiefs later in the week. The only thing we would lose in that situation is the vig, but that’s a risk that I’m willing to take.
The Pick: Raiders +13
Los Angeles Rams (-7.5) @ Washington Football Team — 45.0 total
Moneylines: Rams -360/Washington +280
On Tuesday’s Line Movement NFL Picks Against the Spread show, I speculated that Washington would be moving on from Dwayne Haskins. I thought they would give him one more shot, but I expected them to be ready to pull the plug if things got bad vs. the Rams.
That said, I never saw this coming.
Washington has a proven, winning QB on their roster in Alex Smith, who is supposedly ready to go following a gruesome leg injury he suffered in 2018. Smith is considered a “game managerâ€, which is a term I absolutely hate. Is Smith going to rack up huge passing totals most weeks? No. But is he going to give you an excellent chance of winning ball games? Absolutely.
With that in mind, why in the world are they turning to Kyle Allen this week instead of Smith? Allen had some moments in relief of Cam Newton last year, but those moments were fleeting. He finished with an Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AYA) of just 6.0 and an interception rate of 3.3% over 12 starts. Haskins has posted an AYA of 6.1 and an interception rate of 2.7% through his first four games this season, so it’s fair to question if this is a downgrade instead of an upgrade.
The only way that starting Allen over Smith makes any sense is if they’re tanking or if Smith isn’t actually ready to play yet.
It’s hard to imagine a scenario where Washington stays competitive vs. the Rams with Allen at QB. The Rams are not great defensively — they rank just 15th in defensive DVOA — but they do rank seventh in DVOA against the pass. Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey are two of the best defensive players in the league, so they should make life miserable for Allen in his first start of the year. Washington has had virtually no running game to speak of through the first four weeks, so it seems unlikely that they’ll be able to move the ball on the ground either.
On the other side, the Rams should have no problem carving up Washington’s defense. Washington does have a solid pass rush, but the Rams have a strong offensive line. They rank 10th in adjusted sack rate and third in adjusted line yards, so they seem equipped to handle Washington’s only real strength.
This game probably would’ve been a stay-away with Haskins under center, and I might have even backed Washington if they were starting Smith. But I just can’t avoid wagering against Allen in this spot.
Still, I’m going to wait before actually locking in my wager. This spread opened at 9.5 but dropped to 7.5 following the Rams’ poor showing last week vs. the Giants. I’m hoping that it gets to seven before actually placing my wager.
The Pick: Rams TBD (will play at -7 or better)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans (-6) — 54.5 total
Moneylines: Jaguars +225/Texans -265
The Texans finally decided to pull the plug on Bill O’Brien, and all I can say is good riddance. He was able to get the Texans to the playoffs pretty frequently during his tenure with the team, but that shouldn’t be all that difficult with DeShaun Watson in a weak division. His record once he actually got to the playoffs was dismal — he went 2-4 straight up and against the spread — and he made one of the worst trades in recent memory when he shipped DeAndre Hopkins to the Cardinals in exchange for David Johnson.
The Texans got off to an absolutely pathetic start in 2020, going 0-4 both straight up and against the spread in their first four contests. The schedule makers didn’t do them any favors — they played the Chiefs, Ravens, and Steelers in consecutive weeks — but losing straight up and against the spread means they performed below expectations in each contest.
However, being that bad could actually create some value with the Texans this week vs. the Jaguars. Only 17 previous teams have gone 0-4 straight up and against the spread to start the year, and those teams have gone 12-5 against the spread in Week 5.
That makes this matchup vs. the lowly Jaguars the perfect time to buy low on them. If this spread was set before the start of the season, the Texans would easily be favored by double digits. Instead, we don’t even have to lay a full touchdown with them.
The only thing that concerns me is the current betting activity on this contest. The public is on the Texans, which is a bit surprising. I thought the idea of grabbing points vs. a team with an 0-4 record would be hard for them to pass up, but 63% of the spread bets are siding with Houston.
Additionally, the sharps seem to LOVE Jacksonville. It’s still early in the week, but the Jags have currently garnered a whopping 95% of the spread bets in this contest.
Part of what makes sports betting so great is that you are allowed to cheat off the sharps. They’re the smartest kids in class, so I definitely feel concerned when I look at their paper and they have a different answer than me.
Still, I’m sticking to my guns here and backing Houston. Maybe this is a lost year for the Texans and maybe the Jags are better than expected, but I just can’t pass up on all the factors working in Houston’s favor. Here’s to hoping Watson makes me look smart.
The Pick: Texans -6
Buffalo Bills @ Tennessee Titans — OFF
As of Wednesday evening, I would say that the odds of this game actually happening are pretty slim at this point. I will come back and add some thoughts on this game later in the week if it does get on track to play, but I can’t see that happening unless the Titans have three straight days of negative testing starting on Thursday.
Arizona Cardinals (-7.5) @ New York Jets — 45.0 total
Moneylines: Cardinals -335/Jets +275
I often say that when you’re handicapping football games, you need to handicap the situations more than the individual teams.
This is clearly one of those instances.
The Jets have been nothing short of a dumpster fire to start the team. Like the Texans, they are 0-4 both straight up and against the spread, but unlike the Texans, they seem to have no interest in getting better. Adam Gase has become a punchline among NFL fans, yet Jets’ CEO Christopher Johnson recently called him a “brilliant offensive mindâ€.
The numbers certainly don’t suggest that Gase has put that mind to good use this season. The Jets rank 28th in offensive DVOA through their first four contests, and they rank 28th in rushing DVOA and 30th in passing DVOA specifically. The Jets have had their fair share of injuries on that side of the ball — Le’Veon Bell, Jamison Crowder, and Breshad Perriman have all missed multiple games — but that’s still unexcusable for a so-called offensive genius.
The Jets are expected to be without Sam Darnold for this contest, which means Joe Flacco will operate as the starting QB. That will likely be considered a downgrade by most people, but I’m not so sure. Darnold has been pretty dreadful to start the season, ranking 31st out of 33 QBs in AYA. Flacco probably isn’t an upgrade at this point in his career, but he also can’t get much worse than that.
It’s not all that surprising that the public is flocking to the Cardinals given how bad the Jets have been. They’re currently receiving a whopping 87% of the spread bets, and I don’t see that number decreasing prior to kick off. Casual fans see this as a huge mismatch and don’t see any scenario where the Jets can slow down Kyler Murray.
That said, the sharps are all over Gang Green. They have hammered the Jets relentlessly to start the week, and 89% of the spread dollars have landed on the Jets.
So what are the sharps seeing? For starters, the Jets fit the same trend that I mentioned before with the Texans. Teams that start the year 0-4 against the spread and straight up have to see inflated spreads in their favor, which is why they have historically been so profitable during Week 5.
They also probably see the Cardinals as an overvalued team, and I couldn’t agree more. Outside of an opening week win vs. a banged-up 49ers squad, what has this team accomplished this season? They lost to the Lions and Panthers in back-to-back weeks, and neither of those teams are all that good.
This line suggests that the Cardinals are approximately 10 points better than the Jets on a neutral field. I know the Jets are bad, but that is a really big stretch.
I made a rule last week that I would no longer wager on the New York teams, but I’m breaking that promise. This spread is just way out of whack. I’m sure next week I’ll be back to writing off the Jets forever, but I’m taking the plunge one more time.
The Pick: Jets +7.5
Philadelphia Eagles @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-7) — 44.0 total
Moneylines: Eagles +265/Steelers -333
Philly was able to stop the bleeding a bit with a win over the 49ers last week, bringing them to 1-2-1 on the year. That’s obviously not a very impressive record, but it’s still good enough for first place in the NFC East. This could be quite possibly the worst division in recent NFL history, so six or seven wins could earn a playoff berth.
That puts the Eagles in a much better spot than they were last week, but nothing has fundamentally changed about this team. They were able to beat a team playing with their backup QB, but they’re still dealing with a host of injuries. They might get DeSean Jackson back in Week 5, but that would still leave them without three of their top pass catchers and three of their starting lineups.
That puts them in an awful spot vs. the Steelers. Not only are they great defensively — they currently rank third in defensive DVOA — but they are one of the best teams in the league at rushing the passer. They led the league in sacks in 2019, and they currently rank second in adjusted sack rate. Guys like T.J. Watt and Bud Dupree should have no problem getting to Carson Wentz in this contest.
The Steelers should have plenty of success on the offensive side as well. Philly is merely middle of the pack in terms of pass defense DVOA, and Ben Roethlisberger has historically played significantly better at home than he has on the road. Big Ben has posted a record of 58-50-1 against the spread at home since 2004, including a mark of 34-21 against the spread when favored by 4-10 points.
Additionally, the Steelers should benefit from getting last week off. Teams who are favored that are coming off at least 13 days of rest have historically posted a record of 160-119-9 against the spread. A Week 4 bye might end up hurting them in the long run, but it should undoubtedly benefit them vs. the Eagles.
The only real concern here is that the Steelers are a very public team at the moment. They appear to be the preferred target for sharps and squares alike, so the sportsbooks could take a beating if the Steelers do cover. That always makes me nervous, but I still like the Steelers quite a bit in this spot.
I would recommend locking the Steelers in as quickly as possible if you like them. The consensus line on the Steelers has already moved to -7 (-120) in this contest, so it appears to be trending towards -7.5 or higher.
The Pick: Steelers -7
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens (-13) — 51.0 total
Moneylines: Bengals +530/Ravens -715
This may not look like it on the surface, but this is one of the most interesting matchups of the week in my opinion.
We all know about the Ravens, who are undoubtedly one of the best teams in the league. Maybe they aren’t as good as the Chiefs, but they would be favored against basically every other team on a neutral field at the moment.
They bounced back from their Week 3 loss nicely in Week 4, dispatching Washington by a final score of 31-17. If not for Robert Griffin III coming in and throwing a late interception, they could’ve won the game by more.
On the other hand, the Bengals have played better than expected this season. They’ve gone 3-0-1 against the spread, and they were excellent last week vs. the Jaguars. They were finally able to get Joe Mixon going, and he finished with nearly 200 total yards and three touchdowns.
Joe Burrow has also lived up to the billing after being drafted first overall. He has been under relentless pressure behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league, but he’s thrown for at least 300 yards in three straight games. He’s also racked up seven total touchdowns compared to just two interceptions, so he’s been pretty efficient with the football as well.
So does Burrow have another cover in him this week? It’s possible.
The Ravens have a pretty difficult schedule coming up over the next few weeks, so this could be a spot where they take their foot off the gas a bit. If they do, Burrow has already shown the ability to backdoor a cover early in his young career.
Ultimately, I think this spread is pretty spot on. This is probably my least favorite of all the 1 p.m. ET games, so this is a clear pass.
The Pick: Pass
Miami Dolphins @ San Francisco 49ers (-9) — 49.0 total
Moneylines: Dolphins +330/49ers -415
This spread is obviously implying that the 49ers will get Jimmy Garoppolo back this week, and boy do they need him. Nick Mullens was able to hold his own vs. the Giants, but he was so bad vs. the Eagles that Kyle Shanahan chose to bench him in favor of C.J. Beathard. There was talk that Mullens had the talent to be a starting QB in the NFL, but that talk has gotten a whole lot quieter this week.
Luckily for the 49ers, it does appear that Garoppolo is trending in the right direction. He was able to get in a limited practice on Wednesday, which bodes well for his availability vs. the Dolphins.
The 49ers also got a bit healthier at the skill positions last week. George Kittle was able to return to action and absolutely dominated vs. the Eagles, racking up 15 catches for 183 yards and a touchdown. Some of that came in garbage time, but the Eagles had absolutely no answer for Kittle at any point in that contest.
They also activated Deebo Samuel off the IR for their last game. They clearly eased him back into action — he played on just 34% of their offensive snaps — but that number should go up this week vs. the Dolphins. Pairing Samuel with Aiyuk and Kittle gives whoever is playing quarterback a legit set of weapons to lean on.
That said, things have gone from bad to worse for the 49ers’ defense. They were already playing shorthanded on the defensive line. Joey Bosa, Solomon Thomas, and Dee Ford are all out with injuries, and they traded DeForest Buckner to the Colts during the offseason. Now, their secondary could be down three of their top four corners. Ahkello Witherspoon was able to get in a limited practice on Wednesday, but Emmanuel Moseley and K’Waun Williams were listed as DNPs.
The Dolphins don’t have a lot of strengths, but their pass catchers are definitely talented. DeVante Parker has blossomed as a legit No. 1 WR, and Mike Gesicki remains one of the most physically dominant players at the TE position.
With that in mind, I think you can make a case that the Dolphins are the correct side here. I’d like to see that the 49ers are actually shorthanded in their secondary before actually locking in a wager, but it seems like this is the Dolphins or pass.
The Pick: TBD (would play Dolphins if Moseley and Williams are out)
Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots — OFF
This is another game that is in serious jeopardy this week. It seems unlikely that Newton will be able to suit up if it does happen, and there could be more positive tests in the coming days. This is another game that I will come back to later in the week as more information becomes available.
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys (-9.5) — 54.0 total
Moneylines: Giants +350/Cowboys -455
This line immediately jumped out to me this week. 9.5 points?!? What in the world have the Cowboys done to deserve to be favored by this much over anyone?
Their offense has obviously been lights-out to start the season. Dak Prescott has racked up at least 450 passing yards in each of his past three games, which puts him on an absolutely ridiculous pace:
He benefits from one of the best collection of pass catchers in the entire league. Amari Cooper is a bonafide star at the WR position, while Michael Gallup and CeeDee Lamb are among the best No. 2 and 3 options in football. Ezekiel Elliott is capable of catching passes out of the backfield, and even TE Dalton Schultz has gotten in on the fun.
Prescott and the Cowboys offense should find more success this week vs. the Giants. They rank just 24th in pass-defense DVOA, and they simply don’t have the depth in their secondary to match up vs. their WRs. James Bradberry has been one of the better cover corners in the league this season, but Gallup and Lamb both have huge edges in their matchups according to Pro Football Focus.
Still, as good as the Cowboy’s offense has been, it hasn’t exactly translated to wins. They’ve gone just 1-3 to start the season, and they needed a massive collapse from the Falcons just to grab their lone win.
That’s because their defense has been horrendous to start the year. They have been gouged in a variety of different manners as well. The Browns racked up more than 300 yards rushing vs. the Cowboys last week, while Russell Wilson torched them for 295 passing yards and five touchdowns through the air.
Maybe that won’t be an issue vs. the Giants, but I don’t see why they wouldn’t be able to find success as well. The Giants have struggled offensively to start the year — they rank dead last in offensive DVOA — but they’ve also played against some solid defenses. Daniel Jones has shown the ability to produce in good matchups in the past, and this matchup is about as good as it gets.
Additionally, the underdog has historically had the edge in NFC East matchups when facing the Cowboys. Those teams have gone 34-29-3 against the spread, including 7-2 when getting more than a touchdown. I’m not sure exactly how relevant that trend is considering that the Cowboys changed coaches in the offseason, but large divisional underdogs have historically fared well regardless of what team or division you’re looking at.
I haven’t seen enough from the Cowboys to think they deserved to be favored by this much over anyone. That includes the Giants, who were able to cover the spread as large underdogs just last week vs. the Rams.
The Pick: Giants +9.5
Indianapolis Colts (-1.5) @ Cleveland Browns — 46.0 total
Moneylines: Colts -125/Browns +105
The Colts have been blessed with one of the easiest schedules in football. They dropped their Week 1 contest vs. the Jaguars but have rebounded with three straight wins over the Vikings, Jets, and Bears.
It’s tough to get a true feel for how good the Colts are given their cupcake schedule, but I’m a believer. Not only have they won their last three games, they’ve absolutely dominated. They’ve outscored their opposition by a margin of +54 points, and they’ve won each of those contests by at least eight points.
They are built around a dominant defense, which currently ranks first in the league in DVOA. They have been particularly good against the pass, which is not surprising since Xavier Rhodes and T.J. Carrie both own top-12 grades at the cornerback position according to PFF. Darius Leonard has also graded out as one of the best coverage linebackers in the league, while Buckner and Justin Houston are among the best at their position at rushing the passer.
They also rank fifth in rush defense DVOA, and that will come in handy this week vs. the Browns. They have been one of the most run-heavy teams in football to start the season, and they’ve eclipsed at least 158 rushing yards in each of their past three games.
Consider me skeptical that success continues vs. the Colts. Not only have their past three matchups been significantly easier, but they will have to do it without Nick Chubb. Kareem Hunt is definitely capable of stepping up in his absence, but Chubb’s absence will still be felt.
If they are unable to establish the run as well as they have the past few weeks, I have zero confidence that Baker Mayfield can pick up the slack. Mayfield has been unable to replicate his success from his rookie season despite the addition of Odell Beckham Jr. Freddie Kitchens took the majority of the blame for Mayfield’s poor play last season, but things really haven’t been any better this year under Kevin Stefanski. His AYA of 6.8 does represent a slight increase, but he still ranks just 23rd in the league in that department.
Mayfield has really only been asked to throw in one contest this season, and he was an absolute disaster in that situation. He finished with an AYA of just 4.21 in Week 1 vs. the Ravens, so I don’t think he’s equipped to play from behind at this point in his career.
It should be noted that the sharps appear to like the Browns — which is not all that surprising since they’re home underdogs — but I have been higher than most on the Colts all season. I’m ok with continuing to take that stance as long as I think they’re undervalued.
The Pick: Colts -1.5
