Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers -2.5: Total 51
We get a Thursday night matchup this week that should be much more exciting than the Eagles and Giants game we got last week. Both teams have a specific weakness on defense that the opposing team can attack, leading us to a (hopefully) higher-scoring game. Also, this game from a player prop standpoint has a slight challenge because we won’t know until 4 p.m. EST on Thursday whether or not the Panthers are activating Christian McCaffrey for this game. If McCaffrey is to play it would be the most obvious downgrade to Mike Davis who is in a great matchup for catching passes out of the backfield, which we can discuss.
The Matchup
Panthers offense vs Falcons defense
I mentioned that each defense has a specific way you can attack them. With the Falcons defense, this comes through the air as they have been a pass funnel through 7 weeks this year. The Falcons defense has faced the 3rd most passing attempts, allowing the most passing yards and the most passing touchdowns in the league so far. On the ground, they have faced the 14th fewest rushing attempts, but have been good in this facet of defense surrendering the 6th fewest rushing yards and 6th fewest rushing TDs. So despite a league average rush volume against them, teams have not been efficient on the ground against the Falcons.
The advanced stats agree with the Falcons rush defense as well. Per Football Outsiders, the Falcons defense ranks 6th in adjusted line yards, 19th in 2nd level yards, and 5th in open field yards. The defensive line is playing well and they are limiting chunk plays on the ground.
The one way you can attack Atlanta with running backs though is through the air. This is where it is important to monitor the McCaffrey news before the game on Thursday as Mike Davis’ receiving props would be something I would recommend betting the over on if McCaffrey misses again. To opposing running backs this year, the Falcons have faced the third-most targets, allowing the 2nd most receptions to the position. They are also the only team that has allowed 4 receiving TDs to opposing running backs, which is highest in the league. Both Mike Davis and McCaffrey are heavily utilized in the pass game, and this matchup doesn’t get any better for them in that regard.
The other weapons Teddy Bridgewater has to throw to are Robby Anderson and DJ Moore. This has really been a three-pronged offense between Anderson, Moore, and Davis/McCaffrey. Other receivers and tight ends have essentially been nonexistent in this team’s gameplans.Â
Robby Anderson will be matched up with AJ Terrell for the most part in this game. Terrell has been burnt all season long allowing a whopping 19 of 23 targets (83%) to be caught, going for 235 yards, 2 TDs and a passer rating of 120. Meanwhile, Robby Anderson has been the go-to wide receiver through 7 weeks for Teddy Bridgewater as he has amassed 38% of the team air yards and 26% of the team targets. Anderson has racked up 99+ receiving yards in 4 of his 7 games so far this year, and has gone under 74 yards only once. I think he eclipses the 100-yard mark in this one, so we will be betting on his receiving props below.
So if Anderson is in a great spot, then that means a hit to DJ Moore’s production, right? Wrong. Luckily for us, both guys have coexisted in this offense as it has consistently been a three man show as mentioned. DJ Moore will be matched up with Kendall Sheffield on the other side of the field in this game. This is a good thing for DJ Moore. Sheffield has allowed 26 of 35 targets (74%) at him to be caught, resulting in 397 yards, 1 TD and a 121 passer rating. DJ Moore is up there with Robby Anderson in terms of team market shares. He has gotten 41% of the team’s air yards and 23% of the team’s targets. Moore has eclipsed the 93 yard mark in 4 of his 7 games. Before you go asking whether his big games alternated with Anderson’s big games, Anderson had 74+ receiving yards in each game Moore eclipsed 93 yards, and went for over 100 yards in 2 of the 4 games. There is plenty of room for these two receivers to coexist on Thursday night.
Falcons offense vs Panthers defense
While the Falcons defense has been a pass funnel, the Panthers defense has been more of a run funnel. Despite ranking only 14th in rush attempts faced, the Panthers have allowed the 5th most rushing yards and 2nd most rushing TDs. This is a great spot for Todd Gurley who is quietly having a decent year. Looking at the advanced metrics, the Panthers run defense ranks 21st in adjusted line yards, 22nd in 2nd level yards, and 29th in open field yards. No matter how you slice it, they haven’t stopped the run. On the offensive side of the ball, the Falcons rank league average in these metrics, but this is a matchup they can exploit. Gurley has run for 56+ yards in all but one game and his prop line is currently set at 63.5. It’s also worth noting that Gurley racked up 121 yards on only 14 carries the first time these two teams met this year.
Through the air, Matt Ryan has four main options, but really two that see the majority of work. Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley continue to hog Matt Ryan’s targets, as they should. Julio has seen 28% of the air yards and 18% of the targets while Ridley actually outpaces him at 36% of the air yards and 23% of the targets. Both of these receivers are utilized downfield, and at a high rate, while slot man Russell Gage and tight end Hayden Hurst are more possession receivers closer to the line of scrimmage.
As for individual matchups, Julio Jones is set to go up against Donte Jackson who has quietly been having a good season. He has allowed 14 of 22 targets (64%) to be completed, going for 164 yards, 2 TDs, and a passer rating of 74. Julio Jones is one of the best, if not the best, wide receivers in the league and really can’t be shut down by anyone. However, with how Jackson has played, I don’t think this is a ceiling spot for Julio. Julio did not play in their first matchup this year due to injury.
On the other side of the field, Calvin Ridley will be matched up with Troy Pride who has been much, much worse than his counterpart Jackson. Pride has allowed 16 of 22 (73%) of targets to be completed for 213 yards, 2 TDs, and a passer rating of 133. Ridley should be able to have a ton of success in this one, especially with Julio facing the better corner and drawing the most defensive attention. Ridley also smashed Carolina in their first matchup, catching 8 of 10 targets for 136 yards. I think he has a great shot to have another 100+ yard receiving game here, and his prop line is set at 72.5. It is also worth noting that Ridley has hogged red-zone targets this year, as he ranks 1st on the team with 14, and the next closest to him is Julio Jones and Russell Gage, both with half that amount (7). I think Ridley finds the end zone as well this week.Â
Pace of play
This game has the makings of becoming a track meet, especially if Atlanta gets to dictate the pace this game is played at. The Falcons rank 4th in seconds per play when the score is within 6 points one way or the other. With how fast the Falcons play, it may not matter if the Panthers get out to a lead and try to slow the game down. The Panthers rank 29th in seconds per play when leading by 7 or more. However, if this game stays back and forth, it could go nuclear because the Panthers rank 18th in seconds per play when the score is within 6 points either way. So essentially, the only way this game really slows down is if the Panthers jump out to a big lead early. With only a 2.5 point spread, and the Falcons losing almost all of their games this year by giving up a lead late in the 4th quarter, I expect this to be more of a back and forth game.
Game bets
As mentioned above, I think this game turns into a track meet with two inefficient defenses. The Panthers do have a better pass defense, while the Falcons have a better run defense, but both teams have ways they can attack the opponent. I think the best game bet here is over 51 points.
Player prop bets
See the reasoning above for why I like the bets I do, but here are my favorite prop bets for this game:
- Robby Anderson over 75.5 receiving yards
- DJ Moore over 67.5 receiving yards
- Calvin Ridley over 73.5 receiving yards
- Calvin Ridley to score a TD anytime (+150)
- Todd Gurley over 63.5 rush yards
- Todd Gurley to score a TD anytime (-121)
Also, just a reminder to keep an eye on the McCaffrey news because Mike Davis’ receptions prop will likely be too low. He had 9 receptions in their first matchup and would take a reception bet for him if it is listed at 5.5 receptions or lower.
