UFC Vegas 16 select fight betting preview. Hermansson vs Vettori

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The theme of this card will be wrestling and grappling, and who can put their ground games to best use. It is easy to project that at least one fighter in all of the 11 fights will attempt to take the fight down at some point. If you’re a fan of stand up striking wars, this is probably not going to be your favorite card. If you’re a fan of rounded MMA matches, be certain to tune in. Let’s get to the key fights on the card. 

Marvin Vettori -135 vs Jack Hermansson

Fight is five rounds at 185 lbs and is -195 to end inside the distance. 

The extremely tight betting line is a correct one for this main event, although my guess is that we will see some money coming in on the underdog Hermansson between the time of this writing and fight time. A pick em fight is what I see and what I project to play out. In the striking portion of this fight, Marvin Vettori is the more technically sound striker, and he should have a slight to moderate edge while on the feet. Jack Hermansson can be elusive with his constant and erratic movement, but even with that considered, I give the edge to Vettori. 

Neither fighter carries dynamite in their gloves, and any sort of huge one shot finish or knockdown in this fight would be truly surprising. Instead, I expect Vettori to have the edge on significance of his shots landed, in addition to a volume edge. That volume edge could be mitigated and perhaps even flip as the fight progresses, as I expect Hermansson to have the better gas tank, but that shouldn’t be a huge concern until late in the third round and beyond. 

The striking will play a factor in this fight, but Hermansson is a fighter that prefers his fights to be on the mat, and he has had a wild level of success against high end grapplers in his UFC tenure. He will absolutely want this fight and every fight to take place on the floor, but the wrestling advantage belongs to Vettori. I would deem Vettori both the better wrestler and the physically stronger and more imposing fighter. From a pure wrestling standpoint, Vettori will likely be able to stuff takedowns for as long as his gas tank holds up. The concerns for him are BJJ style takedowns including trips prior to the gas tank fading, and all attempts afterward. I believe Vettori has enough confidence in his own grappling, but he will have to be quite careful. Vettori is a brown belt in BJJ and capable defender, but Hermansson has multiple guillotine wins against BJJ black belts in the octagon and it is extremely dangeroous when he gets hold of a neck. Hermansson also has high end ground and pound if he is able to take top position on the floor, so I believe the determining factor in this fight will be how able Vettori is to keep the fight standing for long periods. While I believe Vettori will be able to dictate where this fight takes place for the majority of the early portion, I do believe Hermansson will wear him down and ultimately get his way. I have to side with the underdog here but it is a very close and well made fight, and Hermasson offers just moderate value on the betting line. 

Line Movement MMA Betting Show

Jamahal Hill -170 vs Ovince (OSP) Saint Preux

Fight is at 205 lbs and is -180 to end inside the distance. 

The co-main event is another well made fight, and a test for both fighters at the respective current stages of their careers. For OSP, after a one fight move to heavyweight, this will be his second fight dropping back down to 205. He won the first fight after the drop, but that was against something of a one trick pony in Alonzo Menifield. For him, this fight is quite a different test from fading the one shot kill that Menifield needed. Jamahal Hill is a far more athletic and more polished striker, and one that will use volume instead of power to touch up OSP early, often and repeatedly. That has been a deadly recipe for OSP and in this matchup, Hill will not fade on the cardio side and it won’t create an opportunity for OSP to grapple with a gassed fighter after punching himself out. The test for Hill is beating a higher end seasoned fighter. There is no argument this level of seasoned opponent is a new look. 

OSP may need to sell out to get this fight to the floor at any point if he is to have a true path to victory. The current striking skill set of each fighter are ones that will see OSP eating a heavy dose of strikes while unable to offer much in return. In the event he is able to get the fight to the floor and settle on top of Hill, the tables fully turn. OSP becomes quite live for a submission in that event. Hill can be taken down by good wrestlers but has an ability to return to his feet and it is rather difficult to see OSP being able to close that distance properly to initiate grappling. All in all, I see Hill running away with this one and landing enough volume that he finishes a damaged OSP later in the fight. If not, we could see a lopsided decision. In any event, the flat line of -170 on Hill is quite an attractive one. 

Roman Dolidze -200 vs John Allan

Fight is at 205 lbs and -260 to end inside the distance. 

It is not often I’ll jump in and call a two to one favorite an extreme value, but I think we have an extreme value on Roman Dolidze here. We have a matchup in which the underdog Allan essentially has no aspect of MMA to lean on in which he has an advantage. If he wants to stand and strike at range, which is unlikely, the power and precision of the selected shots from Dolidze may not finish Allan, but it will certainly be a glaring lopsided affair for the judges. If we see Allan press forward and want to brawl and have a war, Dolidze will welcome that and I can’t see an outcome where Dolidze doesn’t knock him out. If and when the striking goes sour for Allan, and if he finds himself in a spot where he feels he needs to grapple, that might be an even bigger shocker for him. 

Allan is a BJJ black belt and relied on grappling in his UFC debut against Mike Rodriguez, but I think he will be at a disadvantage in the grappling on the floor as well. Dolidze’s grappling is not something that is touted really, but he has an extensive history grappling and he would welcome that as well. Dolidze knocked out Khadis Ibragimov in the first round of his debut, but we did see a glimpse of him attacking his leg lock game when he slipped and hit the mat. Dolidze is undefeated in MMA with a 100% finish rate, and does have two heel hooks on his record. Don’t be surprised if we see at least an attempt at another. More likely however, is a knockout on the feet, as that is where the fight starts and after starting his career with three submission wins, the most recent four have come via strikes. I do believe the -200 flat line on Dolidze is a screaming value, but the -110 ITD line is at least equally attractive with the mitigated risk. Dolidze is perhaps the strongest play on the card. 

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