New England Patriots at Los Angeles Rams (-5): Total 45
The Week 14 Thursday Night Football matchup is a repeat of the Super Bowl matchup two seasons ago between the Patriots and Rams. This go-round looks a bit different though as the Patriots are no longer a dominant force, sporting a much different team – especially on offense – than what we are accustomed to. The defense, however, has held up its end of the bargain, for the most part. I think there is a solid edge to betting this game from a certain perspective, so let’s dive into some detail on what that edge is.
The Matchup
Patriots offense vs Rams defense
Breaking down the Patriots on offense this year has actually been pretty straight forward. They want to run the ball and they want to do so as often as possible. The Patriots rank only ahead of the Ravens in pass attempts per game. They also rank third to last in pass rate in one-score games this season (48%) ahead of only the Vikings and Ravens, but over the last 4 weeks, they rank dead last at 45%. With Cam Newton under center, the offense has one main path, and that is on the ground.
So then, what does the rushing matchup look like? According to Football Outsiders, on offense the Patriots rank 2nd in adjusted line yards, 5th in 2nd level yards and 14th in open field yards. This makes sense as the Patriots have lacked explosive running back play, and Cam Newton doesn’t rack up explosive runs either. What the Patriots do really well though is consistently grind out a handful of yards on the ground as evidenced by their 2nd level yards ranking of 5th.
Meanwhile on the defensive side of the ball, the Rams rank 19th in adjusted line yards, 3rd in 2nd level yards allowed and 2nd in open field yards allowed. So while the Rams D-Line has been credited with not being a decent run stopping unit by these metrics, the linebackers and safeties have stepped up to limit big runs all year. This very well could be a product of their 3-4 base defensive scheme though, which for more novice football fans means 3 lineman and 4 linebackers. Regardless, the Rams have been good at limiting big runs, while the Patriots will attempt to grind this game out on the ground.
Cam Newton isn’t going to throw much, and when he does, his success will be limited. The Rams have shut down a number of top passing attacks this year, allowing 244 pass yards to Dak Prescott, 274 pass yards to Josh Allen, 220 pass yards to Russell Wilson, 209 pass yards to Tom Brady, and 140 pass yards to Kyler Murray. This defense has been lights out stopping the pass, and the sportsbooks agree that the volume and success will be low here setting Cam Newton’s passing yardage prop at 185.5 yards. Newton has failed to eclipse this total in 8 of his 11 games played, so I like taking the under here. Even if the Rams get out to an early lead and the Patriots have to become more pass-oriented, it’s not their strength and they don’t have the weapons to move the sticks on this elite pass defense. Overall, I think the Patriots will struggle to put up points in this one. They have scored over 23 points only 4 times this year, and each time has come against the bottom of the barrel defenses (Seahawks, Raiders, Jets, and Chargers).
Check out our other NFL articles(coming soon)
- Main slate betting preview from Matt LaMarca
- First-look betting preview from Geoff Ulrich
- The DFS Big Three from James McCool
- Dieter’s Dive from Dieter Kurtenbach
- Sunday Night Football betting preview from Geoff Ulrich
Rams offense vs Patriots defense
The Rams offense has been trending in the opposite direction as the Patriots’ offense. The Rams have jumped from a full season pass rate of 59% (12th) in one score games up to 64% (8th) in one score games in the last 4 weeks. The question with the Rams in the passing attack each week is usually which weapon in their offense is going to be the focal point. We have seen Cooper Kupp have as many as 20 targets in a game, with the next highest on the team in that game in single digits. We have also seen a game where Robert Woods saw 15 targets, Kupp saw 13 targets and the next highest was 6 targets. There is also the Seattle game where Josh Reynolds dominated the team targets with 10, and Kupp followed him up with 7, while Woods and Tyler Higbee finished with 6. All of this is to say that usually the Rams come in with a game plan to feed a guy in a certain matchup, and we want to try to pinpoint which guy that is in this game.
Based on PFF’s matchup chart, and the percentages of where defenders line up, it is safe to say that Stephon Gilmore will not move into the slot much as he has only played 17% of his snaps there this year. For this reason, I anticipate Gilmore to follow Robert Woods around the field as Woods lines up mostly outside, with a lower slot percentage (45%) than Cooper Kupp (61%). Jonathan Jones has been New England’s primary slot corner this season and I anticipate him to match up with Cooper Kupp the most. This leaves Josh Reynolds or Van Jefferson on JC Jackson, as the Rams run 11 personnel (3 wide receivers) almost 70% of the time. Reynolds has been losing snaps to Van Jefferson recently too, and was actually out snapped by him last week. So I like Reynolds unders here in a bad matchup and losing snaps.
We know that Stephon Gilmore is a corner that we don’t want to target. He is the best the Patriots have, and one of the best across the league. He has allowed a 53% catch rate, just over 6 yards per target, 1 TD and a passer rating of 72 this year. Don’t throw at Gilmore. If we guess right with him covering Woods the most, then we can look at the other pass catchers for success.
In the slot, Jones has been more beatable. He has allowed a 60% catch rate, just over 6 yards per target, 3 TDs and a passer rating of 88. This isn’t a great matchup for Kupp, but one he can win.
The other outside corner, Jackson, has allowed a 56% catch rate, 8 yards per target and a passer rating of 60. The slot is definitely the best way to attack the Patriots and hopefully the Rams agree. Even with the ability to get some production out of the slot though, this won’t be easy for the Rams to move the ball down the field and is exactly why I think there is an edge to betting this game.
We already talked about how the Patriots are going to run the ball most of the time, and we just talked about how the Rams have shifted to more pass heavy in the last month, but there isn’t really a gaping hole in the Patriots pass defense to attack them outside of a solid game from Kupp. This leads me to really liking the under 45 point total even though betting unders is the least fun thing to do.
The one scary stat for betting the under here is that neither team has been great at preventing red zone appearances from ending in TDs. The Rams have allowed 67% of red zone trips to end in TDs (26th), while the Patriots have allowed 62% to end in TDs (18th). On the flip side of this point is that the Rams rank 3rd in red zone trips allowed while the Patriots ranks 8th. Taking the under here, we are betting that the teams just don’t make it to the red zone much. Punts and field goals!
Pace of play
Assuming this game stays within one score most of the game because it will be low scoring, we should weigh the pace of play within one score the heaviest for these two teams. On the year, the Rams rank 19th in seconds per play in one score games while the Patriots rank 10th. This should be a middle of the road paced game, with two tough defenses. Again, I like the under here.
Game bets
Instead of me listing out more reasoning here as to why I am on each game or prop bet (see above for that), I am just going to list each bet I am on below.
Under 45
Prop bets
- Cam Newton under 185.5 yards passing (-124)
- Robert Woods under 60.5 receiving yards (-112)
- Cooper Kupp over 5.5 receptions (-124)
- Damien Harris over 11.5 rush attempts (-121)
