Tennessee Titans +3.5 (+155) @ Green Bay Packers -3.5 (-175) O/U 55.5
This game should have plenty of fireworks as we have two of the best offenses in the league clashing here. The Titans are now tied with Kansas City for points scored and are coming in off of back-to-back beat downs of Detroit and Jacksonville. Things haven’t gone as smoothly for Tennessee lately when they’ve been matched up against solid teams though, as they’ve also incurred big losses of their own to Indy and Cleveland in the second part of the season. The Titans defense has become a huge liability and put them in some big holes that even their efficient offense has not been able to dig them out of. And that’s the big worry this week for Titans fans.
Aaron Rodgers is playing perhaps the best football of his life this year and comes in leading the league in passer rating while also producing 14 TDs and just one INT over his last five games. The Packers sit in third in points scored per game this year–just 0.1 points back of TEN–and finally have all their main weapons healthy. The Packers rode Aaron Jones to a big win last Saturday and are coming into this game off an extra day of rest.
Jones is a great weapon although you should likely expect the Packers to be attacking the weak Titans secondary this week (see more below under offense-defense matchups). Regardless, points shouldn’t flow freely here and Tennessee has been a great team to target with over bets as they’re 10-3-1 at hitting overs this season. With both teams at full strength and playing for playoff positioning–Green Bay can clinch a first-round bye with two more wins–expect nothing to be left on the table here by either team’s OC.
If you’re looking at how these two have done Against the Spread, neither have been dominant as Green Bay comes in with an 8-6 ATS record in 2020, while Tennessee is at 7-7. Tennessee is 6-3 ATS as away underdogs over the last two years (with Tannehill at QB and Mike Vrabel at HC) which is interesting to note and a factor to consider for our main bets of the week (see below).
Key injuries
Titans
- LB Derick Roberson – out
Packers
- RB Jamaal Williams – Doubtful
Packers offense vs Titans defense
Aaron Rodgers heads into this game with some of the best-advanced stats in the league among QBs and also sits at anywhere from +400 to +200 in the MVP race. Rodgers actually has the lead in TDs with 40–and several other advanced stats I won’t bother reeling off–although Mahomes leads in yards and completions. This is all bad news for a Titans defense who carries one of the worst pass rushes in the league at the moment and currently ranks dead last in the NFL in sacks per game (1.0 per). Any team is going to be hard-pressed to stop Rodgers but with almost no pass rush to worry about we could see him go off for a kind of record night here.
One of the other issues for Tennessee is that they’re catching the Packers at exactly the wrong time. Green Bay finally has all their weapons at full blast as WR Allen Lazard recently returned from injury–after a long layoff–and RB Aaron Jones also looks like himself again after dealing with injuries mid-season. Tennessee stiffened up a little bit late in last week’s game, but that was against a backup QB, and they still allowed Marvin Jones and D’Andre Swift to go nuts for three TDs between them, a performance which bodes poorly for their chances of shutting down Davante Adams and Aaron Jones.
Tennessee has had their moments against good QBs–they rattled Ben Roethlisberger and Josh Allen early in the year–but they’ve struggled to get anything going late in the season. If Green Bay is smart here they won’t waste too much time trying to get things going on the ground and instead just allow Rodgers to drop back as many times as he wants. Tennessee’s best hope is that Rodgers is just slightly off (doubtful) or that he and Green Bay get off to a slow start and it allows their offense to limit Rodgers’ field time with Derrick Henry. This is a long road to climb for the Titans defense and the Packers should be upset if they score less than 30-points.
Titans offense vs Packers defense
The Titans have morphed into one of the most explosive and dynamic offenses in the league in the second-half of the year. Derrick Henry comes into this game averaging 6.52 YPC over his last four games and is in an offense that is rushing the ball 32.4 times per game. Despite some people’s consternation that “rushing doesn’t equal points”, the Titans have defied logic (insert sarcasm emoji) and managed to build a pretty hefty offense around Henry that averages 31.1 points per game (T1 in the NFL).
Tennessee has become nearly impossible to defend against due to both the powerful Henry, who is nearly impossible to stop–unless you commit to stacking the box each play–and the extreme efficiency of Ryan Tannehill and his receivers. Tannehill comes into this game ranked fourth in passer rating and tied fourth in yards per pass attempt. He’s supported by two big play receivers, who both rank inside the top-10 in yards per catch in AJ Brown and Corey Davis, and an offensive line who has only given up 1.5 sacks per game.
While I’ve lingered on about the issues facing Tennessee’s defense this week, the Packers are in an equally tough spot here. Passers facing Green Bay average a 94.9 passer rating against them, 11th-highest in the league, and they rank just 19th in yards per play allowed. Where the Packers could surprise is in the pressure department as they do produce 2.7 sacks per game. A big play or two by the Packers on D could be enough here too as their offense is so sparkling that just limiting the Titans on a drive or two could be the difference here in what should be a high-scoring game.
Game and prop bets
Bet: Titans +3.5 and Over 55.5
The Titans head into this game as winners of four of their last five games and looking stout on offense. Their defense is in a spot here where they could get ripped to shreds, but they’ll likely just need to slow Aaron Rodgers a bit for a cover to be in play. The Packers have done well beating up weaker teams this year, but they’re far from infallible and have looked ordinary against solid teams. Over their last 10 games, Green Bay has only faced two teams with winning records (Tampa Bay and Indianapolis) and both meetings resulted in losses.
We know Derrick Henry is going to get touches, and be hard to take down, but the underrated story of 2020 might be how well Ryan Tannehill is playing. The Titans QB comes into this game with a 110.4 passer rating in 2020 (fourth-best in the league) and has thrown 8 TDs against just one INT in his last three starts. Tennessee may not need Tannehill this week though, as Green Bay has struggled against teams with solid RBs who have jumped on them early. However, if Tannehill is needed he’s certainly playing at a high enough level to get us a backdoor cover or late score for the outright win. The cherry on top here is that Tennessee has often performed well as underdogs under Mike Vrabel, going 6-3 ATS as road dogs over the last two seasons. It all makes TEN +3.5 a solid bet for me.
The Titans line also looks good when paired with the Over 55.5 as any Tennessee cover seems likely to be off the back of a lot of points scored by their offense. Aaron Rodgers leads the league in passer rating and is playing some of the best football of his life, and both of these teams rank in the top-3 in the league in yards-per-play. Green Bay is just .500 at hitting overs in 2020 but Tennessee is 10-3-1 hitting overs this year and has allowed 24 or more points against in five of their last six games. The over here seems big, but it’s likely not big enough given the offenses involved and the suspect defenses involved in this game.
Prop bets
Davante Adams over 7.5 rec. +105
The Titans secondary has been a great one to attack for opposing passing offenses and have allowed the second-most receptions in the league to the WR position. While the total on Adams here is high, the matchup dictates that there’s no way we should be considering the under, especially when we’re being given plus-money to take the over. Adams has hit double-digit targets in three straight games and with the Titans offense likely to make this more of a back-and-forth affair, Adams should have a great shot at hitting the over here against such a weak secondary.
AJ Brown over 60.5 yards
Brown has been a big-play machine during his two-year stint with the Titans and comes in ranked 9th in yards per catch. His teammate (Corey Davis) is also averaging right around the same mark in this stat but Brown’s prop is a few yards lower. Green Bay’s best corner (Jaire Alexander) can’t cover both of their studs, so expect a few big plays here from Brown if he gets matched up against Ken King. Green Bay ranks just 19th in yards per play allowed and Brown has hit over this total in four of his last five games coming in. With Green Bay’s offense being so prolific, Brown should be getting the targets needed to go over this.
Check out our other NFL articles(coming soon)
- First-look betting preview from Geoff Ulrich
- Christmas Day betting preview from Geoff Ulrich
- Saturday Football betting preview from Matt Dickason
- Main slate betting preview from Matt LaMarca
- Dieter’s Dive from Dieter Kurtenbach
- Line Movement Staff Picks from Matt Ramos
