The Green Bay Packers won the NFC North last year going 13-3, and were a clean 6-0 in the division. The divisional dominance was surprising and they were certainly helped by big down years in Detroit and Chicago where injuries and poor QB play hampered both teams competitiveness.
Despite winning the division in dominant fashion and advancing all the way to the NFC Championship game, the Packers aren’t the favorite in 2020 to take the title again, as that moniker belongs to the Minnesota Vikings at the moment. It wouldn’t be shocking to see some big swings (again) among these four teams in 2020 as three different teams have now won the division since 2017.
As a result, taking a closer look at the underdog Bears and Lions here is likely warranted as it wouldn’t be shocking if one of the Vikings and Packers fell off after both eclipsed double-digit win totals last year.
Odds to win the NFC North
- Minnesota Vikings +146
- Green Bay Packers +175
- Chicago Bears +430
- Detroit Lions +520
Who does the NFC North play this season?
NFC North teams will have the regular six inter-division games to contend with. They’ll also face off once with all four of the teams from the AFC South and NFC South this year. These two divisions have a couple of teams projected out with small win totals under 6 in the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Carolina Panthers but also bring in tough match-ups against possible Super Bowl challengers in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the New Orleans Saints.
The teams from the NFC North will also square off against one rival from the NFC East and NFC West this year. For the bottom two teams (Chicago and Detroit) here that could be very beneficial as they avoid showdowns with the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles for games with the New York Giants and Washington Football Team.
Who will win the NFC North
Choice: Green Bay Packers
The Packers are admittedly a candidate for regression off their 13-3 record from last year, especially after going 6-0 in the division last year. I simply don’t feel confident enough to take anyone over them. The Packers do have solid talent on the defensive side of the ball and one of the best WR/QB duos in the game in Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams. They won the division last year with Arod slumping through one of the weaker statistical seasons of his career. If he bounces back even a little, another division title should be in sight here.
Who will come in 2nd
Choice: Detroit Lions
Detroit is my darkhorse pick from the NFC North to make some noise and challenge for a playoff spot. The Lions were playing solid football before Matthew Stafford went down last season and put them in a spiral that saw them lose nine straight games. Stafford was putting up elite numbers last year before he injured his back and has a ton of weapons to work with after they added rookie DeAndre Swift at RB. Increased efficiency on offense should help a defense that suffered through a terrible year but did add help in the secondary in both the draft and free agency.
Who will come in 3rd
Choice: Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings were a Jekyll and Hyde team last year, going 2-4 in the division, but 10-6 overall. They also pulled off a massive playoff upset by beating the Saints in New Orleans. The loss of both WR Stefon Diggs and OC Kevin Stefanski though are tough blows to an offense that ranked eighth in points per game last year. There’s also been turmoil with Dalvin Cook and his contract status. Five of their first seven games in 2020 are against teams with winning records from last year so they’ll need the new faces to gel early. This isn’t a team I’m overly confident in for 2020.
Who will come in 4th
Choice: Chicago Bears
The Bears have been a solid team for the last two years, posting a 12-4 record in 2018 and an 8-8 one last season. Their offense struggled mightily last year though as they were fourth-last in points scored per game. That led to them bringing in QB Nick Foles to hopefully play the role of savior, although nothing definitive has been announced as to who is starting at QB yet. The range of outcomes here seems pretty large for Chicago, who have been competitive the last two seasons, but they do get the fourth-place vote from me for now.
Team discussion and win totals
Green Bay Packers
Win Total: O/U 8.5 wins | Division +175 | Conference +1275 | Super Bowl +2900
The Packers had a great 2019 season that ended on a sour note when they were blown out in the Conference Championship game 37-20 by the San Francisco 49ers. That performance, and some strange off-season moves, have led to the Packers being somewhat dismissed for 2020 as they’re currently not even favoured to win the division.
Quarterback Aaron Rodgers is coming off a bit of a down year and threw for less than 30 TDs for the third-straight season. He also saw dips in Yards-per-attempt and QB-rating. The Packers made a huge statement at the draft when they took a QB in the first-round, in Jordan Love, and bypassed a couple of talented Wide Receivers. The investment in the future is a risky strategy as it could also lead to turmoil off the field if the Packers can’t improve on their 17th-ranked passing offense from last year.
Key off-season moves
As mentioned above, the Packers selected QB Jordan Love with their late first-round pick, thereby avoiding WRs like Justin Jefferson and Denzel Mims. Green Bay also brought in RB AJ Dillion to bolster what was already a solid backfield. The Packers said goodbye to TE Jimmy Graham who was never able to recapture his former-self and become a true number two option for Rodgers in the passing game. He’ll likely be replaced by second-year TE Jace Sternberger but a committee at TE is also likely with Robert Tonyan in the mix for targets too.
Other than the moves they made at the draft, Green Bay mostly stood pat this off-season, choosing to rely on the development of younger players over bringing in higher-priced free agents. It’s a strategy that has worked for them in the past but also one that could bring some regrets later in the season if they can’t find a higher gear to get past teams like the 49ers.
Green Bay Packers 2020 schedule and betting analysis
- Tough: @MIN, @HOU, @TB, @NO, @SF
- Medium: vs.MIN, @DET, @CHI, vs.CHI, vs.ATL, @IND, vs.TEN, vs.PHI
- Easy: vs.CAR, vs.DET, vs.JAX
The Packers rank out with the just an average strength of schedule rating for 2020, which is not too bad considering they carry a division winners slate of games. Four of the toughest non-division games they have are all out on the road, which is a bit of a bummer, but not something that can’t be overcome. They’ll also host a couple of teams with win totals projected to be under 7-games at Lambeau Field which should give them a boost.
The Packers benefitted from a slightly easier schedule last year and don’t have as many pushover opponents to look forward to in 2020 as they did last year. With their over price and total set at just O/U 8.5 wins (-137), there’s too many tough road games on the schedule in 2020 to make me want to take a shot with them in that market. The division winner odds though stick out. At +180 they’re larger in price than the Vikings (+159) who went through far more changes in personnel, both on and off the field. I don’t have a ton of confidence in the Pack, but they’re still in possession of Aaron Rodgers who has willed his way to plenty of divisional wins over the years, even when the rest of the team hasn’t played anywhere near his level.
Minnesota Vikings
Win Total: O/U 8.5 | Division +159 | Conference +1150 | Super Bowl +2400
The Vikings put up another solid season in 2019, posting a 10-6 record that saw them advance to the division finals round. The Vikes have now posted three straight winning years under Mike Zimmer, but only managed a 2-4 record against teams with winning records in 2019. They have the 10th toughest schedule in the league this year (based on 2019 winning percentages) and will likely need to improve their play against stiffer competition to have any chance of hitting double-digit wins again.
QB Kirk Cousins is coming off one of the best statistical years of his career. The eight-year veteran posted the lowest interception rate of his career (1.4%) in 2019 and the best passer rating by far at 107.4. He has been in the news for the wrong reasons lately, posting some interesting comments in regards to how he views the Covid-19 virus. In 2020, he’ll also be without his OC from the last two seasons, Kevin Stefanski, under whom he produced, arguably, the best two seasons of his career.
Key offseason moves
The Vikings lost one of their star players on offense in the off-season as Stefon Diggs, who had been pining for a bigger role, was moved to the Buffalo Bills just prior to the draft. Diggs accounted for 243 targets over the last two seasons so his loss is a big one. The Vikings used a first-round draft pick to replace him, taking LSU product Justin Jefferson with the 22nd pick overall. OC Kevin Stefanski also moved on which could be a big blow to an offense which ranked 8th in points scored per game last year. Given the reduced pre-season and new faces here, both on and off the field, don’t be shocked if Minnesota’s offense is slow to get going early in 2020.
The Vikes will also have some new faces on defense as they said goodbye to longtime CB Xavier Rhodes and DE Everson Griffin. They recently brought in DE Yannick Ngakoue though, via trade with Jacksonville, and he should improve a pass rush that ranked 7th last year in sacks per game. The Vikes had the busiest off-season in this division and how their new pieces gel early will likely set the tone for their year.
Minnesota Vikings 2020 schedule and betting analysis:
- Tough: @GB, @SEA, @TB, @NO, @HOU, vs.DAL
- Medium: vs.GB, @CHI, vs.CHI, @DET, vs.ATL, vs.TEN, @IND
- Easy: vs.DET, vs. CAR, vs, JAX
The Vikings have eight teams on their schedule that have win totals at 8.5 or better. That seems like tough sledding for a team that hasn’t excelled against strong competition the last two seasons. Their 2-4 divisional record from last year doesn’t inspire much confidence either. Even if the Packers regress a bit, the Lions could be miles better this year. Four of their six hardest match-ups are the road too where they’ve gone 7-8-1 the last two seasons.
Minnesota feels like a bit of an overvalued team here and one that people are piling on because of everyone’s dislike for the Packers and their off-season moves (or lack thereof). A new OC and the loss of a star WR aren’t exactly confidence-inspiring for me either. The under 8.5 wins here is set at +121 (as of writing) and feels like a solid bet at plus-money, especially for a team with a tough schedule that has had issues winning against quality competition under its current Head Coach/Quarterback regime.
Detroit Lions
Win Total: O/U 6.5 | Division +510 | Conference +2900 | Super Bowl +5900
The Lions suffered through a disastrous 2019, posting a 3-12-1 record that saw them lose nine straight games to close out the season. Detroit is now just 9-22-1 in two seasons under HC Matt Patricia who will surely be coaching for his job this year. The Lions did regress on defense last year allowing the second-most yards per game in 2019 and sixth most points per game. Their biggest issue was on offense though as QB Matt Stafford ended up missing the last eight games of the season due to fracture in his back.
Stafford’s back is apparently completely healed though, which bodes well for Detroit’s chances this year. Prior to going down he was on pace for a career season 312-yards per game and a 106.0 QB rating through just eight starts. If he can stay healthy, the Lions should be much improved in 2020.
Key offseason moves
Detroit made its biggest moves at the draft, taking Cornerback Jeff Okudah at number three overall. There was some talk that they were interested in taking QB Tua Taglovailoa with that pick and possibly moving on from Matt Stafford, but they eventually ended up going defense. The addition of Okudah was important though as they traded highly-rated corner Darius Slay to Philly prior to the draft. A new Defensive Coordinator in Cory Undlin could also potentially help this defense get back to its 2018 levels when they allowed the 10th-fewest yards per game that year.
The Lions also made some moves on offense, adding dynamic Running Back D’Andre Swift in the second round. Swift was rated as the best RB in the draft by many analysts and should give Detroit better flexibility in the pass game. Ultimately this is a team that underwent minor changes and will mostly be looking for a healthy Matt Stafford to lead them out of the basement of an extremely competitive division.
Lions 2020 schedule and betting analysis:
- Tough: @MIN, @GB, vs.GB, @ATL, @TEN, vs.NO
- Medium: @CHI, vs.CHI, vs.MIN, @ARZ, vs.IND, @CAR, vs.TB, vs.HOU
- Easy: @JAX, vs.WAS
The Lions have a very similar schedule to the Vikings but with two significantly easier games on the schedule against Washington and Arizona–whereas Minnesota gets Seattle and Dallas. The Lions will need all the help they can next year but should be able to better their 0-6 divisional record from 2019 if Matt Stafford stays healthy. The matchup against the NFC South isn’t ideal as at least three teams there figure to be very competitive but the AFC South provides slightly easier sledding as Jacksonville is projected to be the worst team in football right now, with none of other teams sporting win totals better than O/U 8.5.
Having the Lions go over their 6.5 win total in 2020, which has a line of -137 (as of writing), feels pretty achievable. They went 6-10 under Matt Patrica and a healthy Matthew Stafford in 2018 but have a much deeper receiving core and RB stable on offense for 2020. A return to just mediocrity on defense should see them challenge for 7-or-more wins.
Given some of the question marks that linger throughout this division I also don’t mind taking a shot on them bagging an even bigger prize. The +510 price on them winning the division seems more than fair, especially if you agree with my take that the Vikings look like flimsy favorites. All four NFC North teams are all close from a talent perspective and with Matthew Stafford back and healthy the price on Detroit (division winner) looks juicy enough to take a shot on them pulling off the Cinderella turnaround of 2020.
Chicago Bears
Win Total: O/U wins 7.5 | Division +430 | Conference +2100 | Super Bowl +5900
The Bears followed up on their 12-win season from 2018 with a poor 8-8 effort in 2019. The team regressed on both sides of the ball last year as their vaunted defense slid down a few notches in most major categories. Their real issues stemmed from the offensive side though as the Bears ended up scoring the fourth-fewest points per game in 2019.
A lot of the trouble from 2019 can be pinned on the shoulders of Mitchell Trubisky, who threw just 17-TDs (down from 24 in 2018) and had a year-end QB rating of 83.0, down from 93.4 the year before. Despite the season approaching fast, the QB position in Chicago remains unsettled for 2020 as Trubisky’s struggles caused the Bears to bring in Nick Foles as direct competition for the former first rounder.
Key offseason moves
Chicago seemed certain to bring in some depth at QB this season after such a poor third season was turned in by former first-overall draft pick Mitchell Trubisky. They ended up trading for former Eagles QB Nick Foles, who suffered through an injury-plagued year with Jacksonville last year. Foles is just a year removed from two successful playoff campaigns with the Eagles although he hasn’t played more than 11-games in a year since 2015. As of writing, the Bears still haven’t decided who will start for them in Week 1.
Chicago’s other moves look fairly timid in comparison. They drafted TE Cole Kmet in the second round and also signed former Packer TE Jimmy Graham. They’ll provide some solid depth for Chicago but the primary receiver will once again be WR Allen Robinson who caught 98 receptions for Chicago last season. With no real depth added at receiver, the team will be looking for third-year player Anthony Miller to step up this year too.
Chicago Bears 2020 schedule and betting analysis:
- Tough: @GB, @MIN, vs.GB, @ATL, @LAR, vs.NO, @TEN
- Medium: @DET, vs.MIN, vs.IND, @CAR, vs.HOU, vsTB
- Easy: vs.DET, @JAX, vs.NYG
Like Detroit, the Bears get slightly easier inter-conference match-ups this year against the Rams and Giants. Considering the top-end of those two divisions contain much tougher teams it’s a significant break for them. They’ll also benefit from having some of their toughest opponents–New Orleans and Tampa Bay–scheduled as home games this year.
One thing the Bears have excelled at under Head Coach Matt Nagy is divisional play, as they’ve gone 9-3 in division games since 2018. That stat alone makes for a pretty intriguing argument to take the over 7.5 wins here; especially when you consider the flaws that exist elsewhere in the division. A flyer on them at +430 odds for Division Champion carries similar appeal to the Lions in that regard, although I like Detroit’s chances–and odds–slightly better.
The best play here is likely just to avoid the Bears altogether. Chicago projects as a team with a big variety of outcomes due to the unsettled nature of their QB position. It’s a situation that could work itself out but, if it doesn’t, will likely result in another chaotic, non-productive season.
NFC North favorite bets
Detroit Lions over 6.5 wins (-135)
Detroit Lions +500 Division Winner (or Green Bay +175 to win division if you can’t stomach betting the Lions twice)
Minnesota Vikings under 8.5 wins (+125)
